Six Days and Counting: Breeders Cup Championships

   There are only six days to go until the Breeders Cup Championships start on Friday November 6.  Everything is beginning to take shape, last minute decisions are still being made and horses with preferences in multiple race divisions are holding off on placement in their race of choice till the last possible second.  One of those horses is

[caption id="attachment_109" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Zenyatta"][/caption]

Zenyatta, the brilliant mare who matched the immortal Personal Ensign’s lifetime achievement of 13 straight races while remaining undefeated.  Indications from Zenyatta’s connections have been that they are strongly leaning towards entering the perfect “queen of racing” in the Breeders Cup Classic (gr. 1) against the boys instead of the Ladies Classic which she won last year.  Only a very good last work by the mare before the championship races would continue that thinking trainer John Shirreffs said.  Well, after seeing the results of her work today, there is no doubt the gargantuan daughter of Street Cry is ready for whatever her connections decide to send her way.  With regular jockey Mike Smith aboard for the work, Zenyatta completed six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 at Hollywood Park and galloped out beautifully.  Smith said after the work that she is bigger and better than she was last year when she won the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic (gr.1).  When asked if he thought the distance of the 1 ¼ mile Classic might compromise Zenyatta who has never raced at the distance, trainer John Shirreffs replied that he was not.  He said that he believes she will be able to lengthen her stride and hold her own.  If there was any indication before Zenyatta’s work that she is ready to face the boys in the Classic, there are practically no doubts left now.  She is indeed ready.  There will be an announcement possibly as soon as Sunday about which race Zenyatta will enter after her connections have a meeting this evening.

The Breeders Cup Ladies Classic (gr.1 )

[caption id="attachment_110" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Careless Jewel"][/caption]

   The Ladies Classic (gr. 1) will still be one of the most intriguing races of the championship weekend, with or without Zenyatta.  The buzz surrounding this race is all concentrated on a striking gray daughter of Tapit.  Careless Jewel, a three year old filly who might have challenged Rachel Alexandra for three year old filly honors in any other year. She has been ultra impressive this year, winning the Alabama stakes (gr.1) by 11 lengths with ease, then romping to victory over a synthetic surface in her most recent start. Careless Jewel has the speed to win in gate-to-wire fashion, and she can rate off the lead, blow away in the stretch and draw off under mild urging.  These abilities make her an extremely dangerous horse coming into the Ladies Classic and could even see her becoming the favorite come post time.

[caption id="attachment_111" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Music Note"][/caption]

    Music Note is the most likely older female favorite and seems to have gained back her explosive form from last year and then some. Two starts back she defeated dual-champion Indian Blessing and Informed Decision in the Gr. 1 Ballerina by open lengths, then came right back and defeated the ever consistent Unbridled Bell in the Beldame Stakes (gr.1) by 2 ¼ lengths.  On a quick side not here: Unbridled Belle returned to action today winning the Turnback the Alarm Handicap (gr.3) by four lengths at Aqueduct in her second to last start of her career. (back to Music Note) This very talented daughter of A.P. Indy put together a championship caliber three year old season last year ending with a third place finish behind Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic (gr.1).  She appears to be peaking this year at exactly the right time and has done everything with ease and in exactly the right way.  She will be very hard to beat, Zenyatta or no Zenyatta.

[caption id="attachment_112" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Life Is Sweet"][/caption]

 The field also includes the tough luck mare Life Is Sweet.  Being a stable mate to Zenyatta she has had the misfortune to face the giant on several occasions this year and always runs her heart out. She last out came in a fast closing third to Zenyatta in the Lady’s Secret Stakes.  Earlier in the year she won the Santa Margarita Handicap (gr.1), La Canada (gr.2) and El Encinco (gr.2) all at Santa Anita, and she also faced the boys which resulted in a third place finish.  She loves Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride synthetics and has proven that she is never to be taken lightly when at her best.  She comes into this year’s Ladies Classic with her record somewhat tarnished after a string of defeats, but she appears to be coming back into form.  I think she will run big in the Ladies Classic if she continues to remain healthy and fit, and is given a good clean trip.

[caption id="attachment_113" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Cocoa Beach"][/caption]

  There are only eight fillies and mares (excluding Zenyatta) entered in the Ladies Classic this year, but there is a ton of class. Cocoa Beach is back this year after finishing second to Zenyatta last year.  Although she hasn’t been able to put together as glittering a record as she did last year, she only began racing the last half of the year and could be reaching her top form.  Either way she is proven against top tier competition and finished ahead of Music Note last year in the Ladies Classic.  Lethal Heat is another hard knocking older filly who adds more quality to the field.  She is cross-entered in both the Ladies Classic and Turf Sprint (gr.1) with first preference in the Turf Sprint.  Trainer Barry Adams said that although she has first preference in the Turf Sprint, he will point her for the Ladies Classic if Zenyatta opts for the Classic. Europe’s champion two year old filly of last year, Rainbow View is entered in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf, but has first preference for the Ladies Classic.  She is the wild card here, never having started on a synthetic surface and will probably get a good amount of backing after the European sweep at the Breeders Cup last year.  She does not seem to be quite as good as she was last year, but still runs competitively at the top level. The remaining two fillies/mares in the field are Mushka and Proviso.  Proviso who is also from Europe,finished ahead of Mushka in the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (gr.1) last out, but was disqualified to second and Mushka was awarded first, securing her an automatic berth in the Ladies Classic.  I like Music Note, Careless Jewel and Life Is Sweet in that order. [polldaddy poll=2194760]

The Grey Goose Breeders Cup Juvenile (gr.1)

   I’ll start right out by saying that I don’t know a whole lot about some of the colts running here, so I’ll concentrate on the ones I have more knowledge about.  The Breeders Cup Juvenile is fun for a number of reasons, and for different reasons than those of watching more mature horses run.  When horses are this young anything can happen, I know that sounds cliché, but it’s true.  They improve and change so fast at this age that any horse at any one time can show such drastic improvement that they vault to the front of the line and become the leader of their division in the blink of an eye. 

[caption id="attachment_114" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Lookin at Lucky"][/caption]

  Lookin At Lucky will be the very heavy favorite, no doubt about that, and there is also no doubt that he deserves it.  He is undefeated in four starts including the Norfolk Stakes (gr.1), Del Mar Futurity (gr.1) and Best Pal (gr2), all on synthetics.  There is no way I’m going to choose against this guy, not only does he have his Norfolk win over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride, no worries there, but he is also a son of Smart Strike, sire of Curlin, and I love Curlin.  It’s all in the family.

[caption id="attachment_115" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="D'Funnybone"][/caption]

   D’Funnybone is owned by Paul Pompa Jr., the man who owned last year’s sensational Big Brown.  D’Funnybone flew to victory in the Saratoga Special (gr. 2) just one month after Pompa purchased him, then further impressed with his victory in the Futurity (gr.2) in September.  For awhile it seemed he might bypass the Breeders Cup, but fortunately for us his connections decided to give it a shot.  He is untested on synthetics, but trainer Rick Dutrow is confident he will rise to the task.

   Alfred Noble, from Europe, won the Phoenix Stakes (Ire-1) in July then finished last as the heavy favorite in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Ire-1).  Beethoven, another Breeders Cup Juvenile contender came in third in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes and is owned by Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier and Derek Smith.  He is an extremely talented colt who always runs well over turf.  Most of the European runners are untested on synthetics but turf form in many cases results in a good showing on synthetics. 

   The rest of the field is completed by 20 young hopefuls.  Not all will be able to run due to field size regulations, but any defections/scratches will open the doors for others to join.  Other notable names in the race are as follows: Awesome Act, Dave In Dixie, Eskendereya, Gallant Gent, Noble’s Promise, Pulsion and Pounced.  

[caption id="attachment_116" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Eskendereya"][/caption]

   Eskendereya deserves some mention here, he won the Pilgrim Stakes in his last start by 7 ¼ lengths for trainer Todd Pletcher after the race was taken off the turf because of wet conditions.  He has only run twice, finishing runner-up in his debut on the turf, then his victory in the Pilgrim.

   There is a very large contingent of highly capable juveniles from Europe this year.  All in all, this is a very high quality field and will be very intriguing to watch compete.  Enjoy choosing a winner from this one, aside from a few standouts, practically everyone here seems to have a shot at winning or at least placing in the top three.  I left out many other good names I realize, so feel free to bring up any names you can think of.[polldaddy poll=2194768]

Six days and counting…

No Blessing, It's A Curse!

[caption id="attachment_94" align="alignleft" width="140" caption="Indian Blessing"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_95" align="alignright" width="140" caption="Indian Blessing"][/caption]

   Well, it’s official, Indian Blessing will skip the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, trainer Bob Baffert made the announcement Sunday. I know the subject of a “synthetic Breeders Cup” two consecutive years has been done to death but here it goes.[polldaddy poll=2168855]

   I think it was very irresponsible of the Breeders Cup to run the championships at the same track for two years straight. They should have seen the major fall out in domestic entries and realized that many fans would lose interest. I think the main reason they kept it on synthetics for two years was to attract the European runners, and while that has certainly happened, I don’t think it has expanded the viewing audience any, and it certainly hasn’t warmed the hearts of American fans who get left in the dust, denied the thrill of seeing their favorite dirt horses run. There are so many big name horses bypassing the Breeders Cup this year because of the synthetics that it is beginning to affect field quality in some cases. A horse as brilliant as Fabulous Strike should not be sitting out the premier sprint race of the season, nor should Indian Blessing be denied her “swan song” just because it’s on a track she doesn’t like. Nobody can change it, but at least we can make our opinions heard.

[caption id="attachment_96" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Indian Blessing"][/caption]

  Indian Blessing has been a personal favorite of mine for the last two years so I was sorely disappointed to hear she would not be pre-entered in the Breeders Cup but understood the reasons why and can’t say as I blame the connections for this decision. She ran a subpar race last year when passed in the stretch by a victorious Ventura in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (who returns to defend her title this year) and most, including trainer Bob Baffert and owners Hal and Patti Earnhardt, attribute her lackluster performance to a dislike of the Pro-Ride synthetic track.  Baffert stated that Indian Blessing has shown a dislike for the synthetic track while posting her recent workouts. “"She just doesn't like the track. What can you do? She looks good. It's frustrating. I'm not going to pre-enter (in the Filly and Mare Sprint) because I don't want the temptation to change my mind." He told the Daily Racing Form. Baffert also said that Indian Blessing is scheduled to be bred next spring and is unsure if she will race again this year before she retires. I’m hoping out of pure selfishness that she does run at least once more so I can say a proper goodbye in the form of screaming myself hoarse while cheering her down the stretch one last time. Whichever way the decision goes, she has had a stellar career thus far and if she retired now it would be on a very high note off her impressive victory in the Gallant Bloom (gr.1) against Sara Louise. A fitting ending for deserving champion. To date, she has won 10 of 16 starts, was named 2007’s Juvenile Filly of the Year and the 2008 Champion Female Sprinter, and has earned $2,995,420, just shy of the $3 million mark. One of the most consistent runners of her sex for years, she has certainly proved to be a blessing to this fan.

 

[caption id="attachment_97" align="alignleft" width="298" caption="Einstein"][/caption]

   You have to take the good with the bad but there’s always some measure of joy to be found.  Mine came when I read about Einstien’s work and soon departure for Santa Anita and the Breeders Cup Classic. Einstien went the fastest of 54 works at the five furlong distance over the Churchill Downs track today getting the distance in :59:80, a splendid time. Jockey  Julien Leparoux was extremely pleased with the work as was trainer Helen Pitts who said her seven year old star will be shipping out on the 27^th for Santa Anita. This horse has managed to fill some of the void left by Curlin’s retirement from racing, and has won me over just by the way he consistently gives his whole heart in the run.

 

[caption id="attachment_98" align="alignright" width="107" caption="Summer Bird"][/caption]

   Summer Bird also worked five furlongs between races at Oak Tree today, getting the distance in 1:00.45. Trainer Tim Ice said “The work was great, this was exactly what we wanted. He looked super getting over the track and he’s been getting over it very well ever since we got here.” Regular rider Kent

   Desormeaux was aboard for the work and said the horse “enjoyed it and galloped out super.”

The Breeders Cup Sprint: A Kowboy, A Bullet, A Candyman and A Zensation

[caption id="attachment_72" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Zensational"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_74" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Kodiak Kowboy"][/caption]

 

   Before I get into the actual topic of this post I want to go over a couple major updates that could affect the Breeders Cup. 

[caption id="attachment_83" align="alignleft" width="123" caption="Macho Again"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_84" align="alignright" width="137" caption="Gitano Hernando"][/caption]

   First, the announcement by West Point Thoroughbreds President and CEO Terry Finley that Macho Again will bypass the Breeders Cup Classic (gr.1) after developing a cough following his breeze at Santa Anita Park October 17. He will instead be pointed towards the Clark Handicap (gr. 2) on November 27 at Churchill Downs. Another defection came when Team Valor International announced that Gitano Hernando will also bypass the Breeders Cup Classic.  The connections feel the long-shot winner of the Goodwood Stakes (gr.1) ran too hard last out to be reeled back after such a relatively short rest.  He will be sent to England in preparation for the Dubai World Cup (gr.1) but will remain in light training at Santa Anita until then.  Summer Bird tested new waters October 17 when he had his first workout over the Pro-Ride synthetics at Santa Anita. Trainer Tim Ice timed his star pupil going 1:01.96 and said he feels Summer Bird is peaking.  Summer Bird holds the distinction of being the only horse since Easy Goer in 1989 to win the Belmont stakes (gr.1), Travers Stakes (gr.1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr.1) in a single year.  Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird, said the Kentucky Derby winner will have his next five furlong work on Monday.  Einstien is being touted as the somewhat forgotten horse of late heading into the Classic and trainer Helen Pitts says that’s exactly the way she likes it. “I like that he will come in fresh; he’s run some of his best races fresh. He won the ‘Big Cap’ (Santa Anita Handicap-gr.1) off of six or seven weeks (rest), the Woodford (Woodford Reserve Turf Classic-gr.1T) off two months and the Clark (Clark Handicap-gr.1) off more than three months. He’ll be ready.” Pitts also said Einstien will have one more work October 25 in Kentucky before shipping to Santa Anita with a tentatively scheduled work over the Pro-Ride on November 1.

[caption id="attachment_78" align="alignleft" width="142" caption="Fabulous Strike"][/caption]

   Last month it appeared the Sentient Jet Breeders Cup Sprint could be short two of the country’s leading sprinters in Fabulous Strike and Kodiak Kowboy, however that is no longer the case.  Kodiak Kowboy is now headed for his chance at glory in the Breeders Cup Sprint where he will meet a formidable cast of contenders.

[caption id="attachment_79" align="alignright" width="130" caption="Zensational"][/caption]

   The heavy favorite in this race will most likely be Zensational, the incredibly fast, unrelenting Bob Baffert trainee who has taken the west coast sprint division by storm this year.  Zensational is on a red hot four race win streak, the last three being consecutive Grade 1’s. He turned in one of his customary powerhouse performances in the Pat O’Brien Stakes (gr. 1) at Del Mar. A little slow to come out of the gate he quickly compensated and rushed to the front. Coming to the turn he had several lengths on the field and it appeared they were closing on him. Into the turn and they were at his flanks, then in the blink of an eye, they were nowhere. Asked by jockey Victor Espinoza for more run at the top of the lane he willingly left the field behind and sauntered across the line 2 ¼ lengths the best. This horse runs like no other I have ever seen. As soon as the gate opens he shoves his head in the air and charges to the lead, looking for all the world like an equine version of Eric Lidell. This horse doesn’t want anything in front of him, and he has the raw speed to make sure it never happens. His races appear to be carbon copies of each other; rush from the gate, seize the lead, open up on the field, appear beat when the field closes in at the turn, then burst away with freakish speed yet again and he’s home free.

[caption id="attachment_77" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Fatal Bullet"][/caption]

   Last year’s Breeders Cup Sprint runner-up and Canada’s 2008 Horse of the Year and Champion Sprinter is back for another try. Fatal Bullet hasn’t had as stellar a year as he did in 2008, but he is beginning to pick up speed, and may just be at his best come Breeders Cup day. He started the year with a victory in the Bold Venture Stakes at Woodbine in Canada, followed by an uncustomary last place finish in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr.2) in August at Saratoga. In the Phoenix Stakes (gr.3) he outlasted the late surge of Capt. Candyman Can by half a length to achieve another victory and secure himself a spot in the Sentient Jet Breeders Cup Sprint.  He has shown an affinity for synthetic tracks and has run well over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride so he may have something still to say.

[caption id="attachment_76" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Capt. Candyman Can"][/caption]

   Capt. Candyman Can has one grade 1 victory to his credit in the Kings Bishop Stakes.  First place finisher Vineyard Haven was disqualified in the Kings Bishop Stakes to second for bumping in the stretch and Capt. Candyman Can was moved to first place instead. Last out the talented three year old colt was defeated by Fatal Bullet in the Phoenix Stakes (gr.3) after coming up a half length short in his bid. No matter who he faces this guy always guts it out to the end and is a top class adversary wherever he shows up.

[caption id="attachment_80" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Gayego"][/caption]

   Gayego could take on the role of second favorite with his dominating win in the Ancient Title Stakes (gr.1) over Crown of Thorns. The four year old colt, prominent on last year’s Triple Crown Trail, has only one other stakes win to his credit (Group 3 Mahab Al Shimaal in Dubai) in three tries this year.  He placed second in the Godolphin Mile in March, and then won an optional claimer at Saratoga in August.  In winning the Ancient Title Stakes Gayego guaranteed himself a spot in the Sentient Jet Breeder Cup Sprint field and looks primed for a tremendous effort. He will be a force to reckon with on race day.

[caption id="attachment_81" align="alignleft" width="138" caption="Munnings"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_82" align="alignright" width="120" caption="Vineyard Haven"][/caption]

   Other possible starters include Eaton’s Gift, Munnings, True Quality, Vineyard Haven and more.  Munnings is another who is not yet a confirmed starter, but his addition would expand an already sizable pool of class.  He won two consecutive stakes races including the Woody Stephens Stakes earlier in the year before placing third to Rachel Alexandra and Summer Bird on a sloppy Track in the Haskell. He runs well with the best of them, but seems to have tailed off a bit from his earlier exceptional form.  If he does enter I wouldn’t count him out.

   There are many classy horses running here, and many have a legitimate shot at winning. Zensational may be the heavy and obvious favorite off stirring wins over synthetics, but no horse is ever a lock. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, I don’t see him getting beat by anyone that shows up.

[polldaddy poll=2160860]

Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint: Blessing In Disguise

[caption id="attachment_53" align="alignleft" width="140" caption="Ventura"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_54" align="alignright" width="174" caption="Indian Blessing"][/caption]

   This is my favorite Breeders Cup race aside from the Classic and Ladies Classic. The faster the better, sprints are constant excitement because they’re over in little more than a minute.  All the action is crammed into those few moments of thrills, it happens so fast you can’t take it all in. Every horse making their move almost simultaneously, one big group bunched up, flying into the homestretch as one.

   Last year saw heavy favorite Indian Blessing upstaged by the now well established Ventura. This year both mares are back for round two, and have returned to their top form of last year. It would seem these two mares are the class of the field, but a contingent of fresh, talented contenders is ready to join the fray. The two main standouts of this new contingent are Sara Louise and Informed Decision.

[caption id="attachment_55" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Sara Louise"][/caption]

   In the Gallant Bloom Handicap (gr. 2) Indian Blessing fought a tenacious Sara Louise the length of the stretch to obtain the victory. Three year old Sara Louise was making just her second start of the year after having won the Victory Ride Stakes (gr. 3) at Saratoga.  Sara Louise holds the distinction of being the last horse to beat super filly Rachel Alexandra, albeit when they were two year olds and Rachel Alexandra had not yet developed into the monster she is now. With her gritty second to two time champion Indian Blessing, she showed that she is improving and certainly a force to be reckoned with if she heads for the Sprint. 

[caption id="attachment_56" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Informed Decision"][/caption]

   Informed Decision has compiled a very impressive record in 2009, already having defeated defending champ Ventura in April in the Vinery Madison Stakes at Keeneland racecourse. She is also undefeated on synthetic surfaces, but has never raced over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride synthetic surface. Her only defeat this year came in a third place finish in the Ballerina on a sloppy track to winner Music Note and runner-up Indian Blessing.

[caption id="attachment_57" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Ventura"][/caption]

   Ventura is the obvious favorite this year for several reasons. She already has one victory over the Santa Anita synthetics this year when winning the Santa Monica Handicap (gr.1) in January, and also chalked up an impressive second by a mere nose to Gio Ponti (the leading grass horse in America) on the Santa Anita turf in the Frank Kilroe Handicap (gr.1) in early March. Now with her most recent one-length victory in Canada’s Woodbine Mile (Can-1T) against males, she has put herself squarely in line to successfully defend her title from last year. She raced six wide down the stretch while posting a final time that was just off the stakes record in the Woodbine Mile, suggesting that she is at least as good as she was last year. This mare has one of the most eye-catching turns of foot you’ll ever see when she gets rolling and is super consistent.

[caption id="attachment_58" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Indian Blessing"][/caption]

   Indian Blessing is a personal favorite of mine, so I will say right up front that I never choose against her no matter how bad it looks. The first time I saw Indian Blessing was in 2007 at the Breeders Cup at Monmouth Park. It was my first year following live racing and I had instantly become a huge Curlin fan. I followed him from his very first start through to the end of his career. I attended his Preakness win, Belmont second and then the Breeders Cup. I had also heard about Indian Blessing after her impressive debut and was following her career very closely. The 2007 Breeders Cup was all about Curlin and Indian Blessing for me. I can’t even begin to describe the feelings I had when I saw them for the first time, not to mention the thrills I still get when I recall both their victories. Since that day, Indian Blessing has gone on to become the two year old champion filly of 2007 and champion female sprinter of 2008. This year she kicked things off with an impressive second in Dubai against the boys after stumbling at the start. Various physical problems kept her from returning to the races as quickly as was hoped, and when she did return it was to finish a disappointing fourth against much weaker competition than she was used to. That was the first time in her distinguished career that she finished unplaced. In the Ballerina she ran second to easy winner Music Note in the slop, defeating Informed Decision, but still not looking quite like her old self. As a result she was not favored in the Gallant Bloom Handicap (gr.1) against rising star Sara Louise. After a furious stretch duel with Sara Louise, she demonstrated the courage that had made her a two time champion and seized victory by the bob of a head. Indian Blessing returned to the winners circle, as if daring anyone to count her out again.  Her connections have indicated that she will be retired at the end of this year, possibly after the Breeders Cup. It would be a beautiful conclusion to a riveting career of one of the most brilliant, consistent and talented horses to come along in years, if she were to win this time around.

[polldaddy poll=2138588]  Ventura has the advantage of multiple victories over the Santa Anita Pro-Ride synthetic surface and the turn of foot to make any opposing horseman shudder. Indian Blessing has the guts, courage and championships to prove her mettle. Informed decision is undefeated on synthetics so she should take nicely to this surface. Sara Louise is quickly improving, having just given Indian Blessing the race of her life, but is untested on the Pro-Ride synthetics. 

   Informed Decision has already defeated Ventura in the Vinery Madison Stakes, but Indian Blessing finished ahead of Informed Decision in the Ballerina and then defeated Sara Louise in the Gallant Bloom. From a purely statistical standpoint, Indian Blessing holds the advantage. However, horse racing is never just about statistics. There are countless other factors to take into consideration such as the weather, but more often than not, it’s the courage of these incredible athletes that wins the races.

[caption id="attachment_59" align="alignleft" width="99" caption="Seventh Street"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_60" align="aligncenter" width="107" caption="Flashing"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_61" align="alignright" width="134" caption="Porte Bonheur"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_62" align="alignleft" width="114" caption="Dubai Majesty"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_63" align="alignright" width="123" caption="Bear Now"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_64" align="alignleft" width="85" caption="Evita Argentina"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_65" align="alignright" width="112" caption="Carlsbad"][/caption]

   Once again I realize that I left out a good amount of serious contenders so I’ll try to cover a few of the main ones quickly. The three year old filly Carlsbad has proven it is never wise to ignore her. Last out she finished second by three parts of a length to Informed Decision in the Thoroughbred Club of America (gr. 2) at Keeneland after taking the lead into the stretch. She has won four stakes this season alone and always handles the step up in class like a true professional. Others under consideration for the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint include: Seventh Street, Flashing, Porte Bonheur, Dubai Majesty, Bear Now and Evita Argentina. All represent a genuine threat and should be carefully taken into consideration.

Breeders Cup Thoughts: Classic Competition

       It is approximately three weeks untill the 2009 Breeders Cup championship races at Santa Anita racecourse.  For the first time in Breeders Cup history the series will be held at the same track two consecutive years.  2008 was the first time the Breeders Cup was held on a synthetic track, and the results were met with very mixed reactions. European horses took to the synthetic surface as if it was their backyard playground. To be honest, they ripped us to shreds, in the process, shaking the confidence of American horsemen and owners who had thought up to that time that we had a fair contingent with which to compete against global fields.

   Unfortunately for us, some of our most experienced and proven runners, who just happen to be leaders of their divisions, are sitting this year’s Breeders Cup out because of the synthetics. Rachel Alexandra is the most obvious, not to mention the most valuable horse on the sidelines this time around. Fabulous Strike, one of the best sprinters in the country will almost certainly skip the Breeders Cup Sprint after a very uncharacteristic and lackluster performance in last year’s edition. Much has been made of Rachel Alexandra’s exclusion from the championship series where her presence would be a tremendous boost, but the thought here is this: she isn’t coming, so deal with it and move on.  She deserves a break anyways after the kind of year she has put together.

   Most people seem to think that having the Breeders Cup on a synthetic track for the second consecutive year is like handing it to the European runners on a silver platter. While I agree that it certainly puts the Euro’s at an advantage, it is far from a foregone conclusion that they will sweep in and win again. For this year’s Breeders Cup I’m going by loyalty, and sticking it out with our American horses.  There’s still plenty of talent left in our old champs to beat the tar out of the best of them.

[caption id="attachment_27" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Zenyatta"][/caption]

   Let’s start with the big one, the Breeders Cup Classic. Zenyatta could be America’s ticket to success here if her connections decide to try a new route and run one for the fans by pitting her against the boys.  Her win last weekend at Santa Anita in the Lady’s Secret Stakes (gr.1) was the usual.  Get out there, win, and make everyone else who showed up look like trash. She’s completely relentless in the way she destroys her competition.  In the Lady’s Secret she almost looked bored when she hit the lead all on her own, almost as if to say: “When do I get to race for real?” If she enters the Classic picture she will be my pick to win.  Some have suggested that her running style will be compromised by a larger field in the Classic, the way she likes to sweep around the group at the top of the stretch.  Does anyone really think that a larger field will bother her, nothing else has and she’s never been close to being hard pressed in any of her races.  She is now 13 for 13, undefeated, perfect, tied with the immortal Personal Ensign. There’s plenty left in that tank from this observers point of view. [polldaddy poll=2126563]

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   If Zenyatta is not entered in the Classic and is instead set to defend her title in the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic (formerly the Distaff) then we still have some good prospects left to carry the American banner. Einstein is my choice in this case.  He has proven incredibly versatile, running well enough to win on almost any surface.  Plus he has loads of talent and heart, and also has a victory over Santa Anita’s synthetic surface when winning the Santa Anita Handicap (gr.1) earlier this year.

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   Another intriguing prospect is Gio Ponti, arguably the best grass horse in America today.  Last out he was defeated in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. 1) by 43-1 long shot Interpatation. Before that he had rattled off four straight grade one victories. His best surface is grass, but he also has won over the Santa Anita synthetic surface.

  

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   Summer Bird would be my choice for a mild upset in the Classic. He has risen sharply in the three year old ranks, becoming the first three year old male to win the Belmont Stakes (gr.1), Travers (gr. 1) and Jockey Club Gold (gr.1) cup since the great Easy Goer in 1989.  Others to win this rare triple are such greats as Man ‘O’ War, Arts and Letters, and Damascus, all three hall of famers. That’s some prestigious company to be joined with.  Since winning the Belmont in June, Summer Bird has proven more and more able to rise to the challenges set before him.  His only defeat since the Belmont was a courageous second to super filly Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell Invitational (gr. 1).

[caption id="attachment_31" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="mastercraftsman"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_30" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Rip Van Winkle"][/caption]

  

The European three year old duo of Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle is perhaps more daunting than last year’s duo of Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator.  These two would have been vying with each other for three year old male and possibly horse of the year championship in Europe but for the presence of Sea The Stars, the phenomenal, undefeated three year old winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomhpe (the world’s most prestigious grass race in France).  Both of these exceptional colts have proven themselves to be super star material and are more than capable of winning the Classic.

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   There is a medley of other promising contenders, but for the sake of length, I will try not to go into much detail.  Mine That Bird, the underdog winner of the Kentucky Derby, gave a very disappointing performance in the Goodwood Stakes (gr.1) last weekend. No matter what the connections say, sixth place isn’t exactly promising when you’re not up against the deep quality field he will be facing in the Classic.

  

Macho Again has not won since the Stephen Foster (gr.1) at Churchill Downs in June, but has had several good performances since then. He finished second to Bullsbay in the Whitney (gr. 1) at Saratoga, then came in a very close second to Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward Stakes (gr.1) again at Saratoga.  His third to Summer Bird in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr.1) last out was a mixture of sloppy track conditions, and being too far back to reach contention according to trainer Dallas Stewart.

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   Quality Road is untested on synthetics and could be a real surprise come Breeders Cup day. He always runs well and has great tactical speed that allows him to stay within contention throughout his races. I don’t think he’s quite ready to defeat the likes Einstien or Gio Ponti, but this is horse racing and anything can happen.

    I know I’ve left out some prominent contenders, so now it’s your turn. Who do you think can/will win the classic? Who do you want to win?