Monday, June 28, 2010

Yesterday's Winners Becoming Today's Stars

The last half of the racing year is upon us and from all points of view it looks like the year is set to end with some spectacular racing. This past weekend showcased more fresh faces to keep an eye on in the upcoming months and some that will no doubt be making a strong presence for the rest of the year.

The most impressive performance of the week was quite possibly Concord Point’s record setting Iowa Derby win. Not only did the gray/roan son of Tapit demolish a solid field of three-year-olds that included Winslow Homer, Vow to Wager and Thiskyhasnolimit by 8 ½ lengths, he also shattered the track record for 1 1/16 miles by about half a second. I, like many fans watching the races last week, believed the Iowa Derby was going to herald the triumphant return of Holy Bull Stakes winner Winslow Homer to the races. Instead this turned out to be a performance much like Afleet Express winning the Pegasus Stakes over such well known three year olds as Jackson Bend and Schoolyard Dreams the weekend before last. We’ll all want to be keeping an eye on this Bob Baffert trainee this summer to see what kind of races his connections decide to run him in.

If Concord Point’s Iowa Derby wasn’t the most impressive victory of the weekend the Exhi certainly takes top billing

with his Victoria Park Stakes victory. With jockey Robby Albarado taking a stout hold of Exhi right from the get-go, the talented colt stormed to the lead, spreading his beautiful stride just enough to maintain a short advantage down the backside before breezing home in a flawless front-running victory. Under the line it was 8 lengths back to the show horse. This makes it four consecutive wins for the dark bay son of Maria’s Mon, a streak that includes victories in the Lexington Stakes, Rushaway Stakes and Marine Stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher once again proves that he has a very powerful hand of three-year-old stars this year.

Just Louise is doing her very best to live up the high standard set forth by her multiple graded stakes winning half sister Sara Louise. In Churchill Downs Debutante Stakes  (gr.3) last Saturday Just Louise fought her way to the lead in the stretch, then lost it to Salty Strike and Calvin Borel on the inside rail before showing her true colors and fighting back the entire length of the stretch to regain the lead and attain victory. She is now undefeated in two starts. She displayed the same tenacity in the Debutante shown by her half sister Sara Louise in last year’s Gallant Bloom, a race in which Sara Louise lost by a head to Champion Indian Blessing after one of the year’s most incredibly furious stretch battles.

The future looks brighter every weekend for some of racings new and upcoming stars. There are always new surprises around the corner in racing and right now they appear quite pleasant.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Mother Goose Stakes

The last time we saw Devil May Care she was crossing the finish line 10th, about 12 lengths behind a winning Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby. The talented filly who entered the Kentucky Derby off an impressive win in the Bonnie Miss Stakes makes her highly anticipated return in Belmont Park’s Mother Goose Stakes (gr.1) this Saturday against a small but promising field of 4 other fillies. In the Bonnie Miss Devil May Care sat just off the pace for the majority of the run before unwinding with a powerful rally in the stretch that left graded stakes winner Amen Hallelujah and the highly-regarded Christine Daae in the dust. Trainer Todd Pletcher says he was very pleased with her Kentucky Derby run and expects her to run well again.

Pletcher has two other 3-year-old fillies entered in the Mother Goose this year giving him a great shot at winning. His other two entrants are Ailalea and Katy Now. Both fillies look like legitimate threats but Ailalea is by far the more experienced of the two. Two starts back she set most of the pace in the Kentucky Oaks before fading to finish 5th. Last out she won the one mile Dogwood Stakes at Churchill Downs after rating just off the pace and holding off long-shot Tap Tap Tapping by one length.

Katy Now will enter the Mother Goose on a four race win streak but has never faced stakes competition before and never raced farther than a mile. She might be outclassed here but her works look strong and it takes a special horse to win back to back races let alone four in a row no matter the competition.

Biofuel is the filly that many think should have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last year after being bumped out of contention just when she was starting an impressive run at the leaders. She is perfect in both her polytrack starts this year but has yet to try the dirt. I hate trying to determine if a horse has the ability to go from synthetic to dirt but I personally think this filly will handle the dirt just fine. Her last win came at the same 1 1/16 mile distance as the Mother Goose.

Connie and Michael looks like the logical pace horse in the Mother Goose. She almost always shoots right out to the lead in her races, a tactic that has served her well in in the past. In her first try on dirt she went gate-to-wire in an allowance race at Churchill Downs last out, winning by more than 5 lengths.

This year the Mother Goose Stakes has been shortened from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/16, this continues a poor trend in

American racing where we are seeing a majority of our distance running disappear in favor of more speed favoring races. The cut back in distance will most likely make the race a little more competitive. Connie and Michael could steal the race if allowed to set a nice easy pace but with stalkers like Ailalea and Biofuel close behind that probably won’t happen. Devil May Care will probably be the farthest back or mid-pack, seeing as the field is so short there aren’t as many pace elements. She should get a great trip and have a nice opportunity to make a run at the lead whenever she feels like it.

Don’t miss out on the other big races this weekend like the return of Winslow Homer in the Iowa Derby and Brass Hat back on dirt in the Cornhusker Handicap. Enjoy the weekend!

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

The Great Trinity: Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra and Goldikova

My internet server has decided to take the week off apparently so I was unable to research for this post. This is mostly going to be off the top of my head and from memory so please forgive any mistakes (and feel free to point out any) you might come across.

European racing at Royal Ascot seemed to garner as much attention from American racing fans over the last couple of weeks as our own American racing due in large part to the remarkable 5-year-old mare Goldikova and her continued conquest of the world’s most accomplished runners.

Just a few days before Europe’s queen of racing dominated a stellar field of males in the Queen Anne Stakes, two towering champions on American soil made sure and certain that they received their fair amount of the chatter with two powerhouse performances.

On June 12th in Kentucky reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra waltzed her way to the easiest of wins by

destroying a fairly weak field of fillies in the Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs, winning by 10 ½ lengths despite being geared down and ridden to the wire without a touch of the whip. Notwithstanding severe criticism from many fans and sports writers alike that owner Jess Jackson was taking the easy way out with the 2009 Horse of the Year in the Fleur de Lis instead of facing the males in the Stephen Foster or even the girls at Belmont in the Ogden Phipps Handicap there is no denying that is was great to see a brilliant performance like that from Rachel Alexandra. After two consecutive losses all coming by less than a length this year it was like a powerful shot of adrenalin in the Rachel ranks as somewhat subdued and disappointed fans exploded from out of the woodwork to celebrate the return of their hero to winning form.

With Rachel Alexandra’s victorious return the inevitable torch was passed to the ever capable Zenyatta to continue the streak of brilliance that she now has stretched out over an incredible 3 year campaign. On June 13th in one of the

most unprecedented and inconceivable feats in thoroughbred horse racing history Zenyatta not only took the torch and ran with it, she turned it into a flamethrower of sorts the effects of which will be talked about for centuries to come. In her 3rd consecutive Vanity Handicap the grand mare ran her undefeated record to a perfect 17-for-17, setting a North American record for the most consecutive wins in races not restricted to state breds. Her standard is nothing less than perfection and in each and every single one of her 17 starts it has proven to be too much for her overpowered competition. Four years ago if you had asked anyone if they thought the records of the Great Citation and Cigar would fall by 2010, taken down by a mare, would anyone have believed you? The significance of what Zenyatta has accomplished cannot be over estimated.

With all three of these amazing mares all pointing towards the Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Churchill Downs this fall the 2 day championship meet takes on a whole new meaning. Zenyatta will almost certainly be going for a repeat win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic while Goldikova will shooting for a stunning 3rd consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile victory. Rachel Alexandra is a little behind the game at this point but is finally pointing in the right direction. Which Breeders’ Cup race she will enter is anybody’s guess but the two most logical choices are the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic the Classic itself. If she takes on males successfully before the Breeders’ Cup it will probably be the Breeders’ Cup Classic over the Ladies Classic which would bring about a monumental clash between two of the most highly esteemed fillies in history with both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra entered.

It pretty much just comes down to speculation and guesses at this point in time in the racing season because we all know that anything and everything can happen in racing, but it’s always fun to dream.

Comeback Trails: A Promising Outlook

Winslow Homer, winner of this year’s Holy Bull Stakes and prominent on the Kentucky Derby trail before being sidelined with a stress fracture is set to make his return to the races in the June 26th Iowa Derby after making incredibly rapid progress in his healing and training regimen. Trainer Tony Dutrow said the colt has come out of his recovery in fantastic shape.

Royally bred Take Control, a son of champions A. P. Indy and Azeri, who many though would be a good Kentucky Derby prospect early in the year is back to work after being sidelined from bucked shins. The Bob Baffert trainee has been closely followed since well before his impressive maiden win first out due in large part because of his famous and talented parents.

I Want Revenge has trainer Rick Dutrow feeling very confident and excited about the 4-year-old colts chances to return back to his spectacular form from early 2009 after making remarkable progress in his rehabilitation. If all goes well from this point on works the plan is to enter him in the July 3rd Suburban Handicap at Belmont Park. Last year I Want Revenge won a thrilling edition of the Wood Memorial before being scratched from the Kentucky Derby as the favorite the morning of the race.

2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine that Bird is looking like his Derby-winning-self these days after posting numerous workouts that have trainer D. Wayne Lukas glowing with anticipation of the gelding’s return to the races. His return could come as soon as July 3rd or 4th with his main goal being the Whitney Handicap (gr.1) on August 7th at Saratoga.

Who remembers The Pamplemousse? Impressive winner of both the 2009 Sham Stakes and San Rafael Stakes, the stunning colt who was sidelined by a serious tendon injury before the Santa Anita Derby is back to light training for trainer Julio Canani. Although it appears a return to the races will still be quite a ways in the future, Canani expressed his confidence that The Pamplemousse will return to his winning ways once he does return.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Goldikova: Victory Again

Royal Ascot was rocked to it’s very core June 15th as one of the greatest race mares in history turned one of England’s most prestigious races into a rout. In one of her most exciting races to date, multiple champion Goldikova further padded her impressive resume in the Queen Anne Stakes (Eng-1) against an impressive field of older male runners. Included in the field was last year’s Queen Anne Stakes winner Paco Boy who entered off a very impressive group 1 win. Down to the wire it proved to be a two horse race with the favorites taking center stage.

As the field entered the long homestretch Goldikova launched from just off the pace to seize the lead and in the blink of an eye had opened up three lengths on the field. From mid pack Paco Boy had a tougher time getting into contention but when he finally got in the clear and kicked it into high gear he began to rapidly close the gap between separating him from the speeding mare. The noise from the crowd was deafening as the brilliant champion pounded down the turf course, Paco Boy charging hard behind, the wire just seconds away now. The lead was down to a mere length as Paco Boy continued his unrelenting drive. Closer and closer he came to Goldikova, at the wire the margin of win was so close it appeared that perhaps the mare had lost the advantage. In the end though she proved too great for her challenger, in fact she still looked full of fight galloping out afterwards making onethink she could have held on longer if the need had arisen.

Goldikova achieved horse racing immortality last year when she became only the second horse in history to ever win back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Mile’s (gr.1). With her year-end goal once again being an unprecedented attempt at winning her third consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile she would make a compelling case for being the greatest race mare of all time with a win there. She’s already in the running in this fan’s opinion so another Breeders’ Cup win would just be the icing on an already stunning cake.

The Queen Anne Stakes win marks the striking mare’s 9th lifetime grade or group 1 win. She is undefeated in two starts this year, both against males. In her last start she won her 2010 debut in the Prix d’Ispahan, defeating Byword emphatically. Byword went on to win the Prince of Wales Stakes (Eng-1) the day after her win in the Queen Anne also at Ascot, further flattering the mare’s form.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Zenyatta: 17 for 17

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Zenyatta has done it again, just when you think she can’t surprise you anymore she pulls a shocker right out of thin air and produces yet another one of racing’s most compelling moments. Running down a stubborn St. Trinians in the stretch, Zenyatta registered her 17th consecutive victory and thus passed the previous record of 16 straight races held by herself as well as the great Triple Crown winner Citation, and Cigar, Hallowed Dreams and Mister Freaky. She is now officially in a league of her own. This makes her 7th consecutive Grade 1 win and 11th overall, a remarkable achievement under any circumstance and all the more so coming while remaining undefeated.

In a no-doubt-about-it most exciting race of the year to-date the brilliant, undefeated, and untouchable 6-year-old mare Zenyatta reached down into that inner reserve of courage that only a champion can truly muster to turn certain defeat into sheer and thrilling victory. Racing in her customary position at the back of the pack in the Vanity Handicap (gr.1), jockey Mike Smith got the champion to settle beautifully behind the talented St. Trinians. Approaching the far turn jockey Martin Garcia got the jump on Zenyatta as he began to work on St. Trinians, urging the mare ahead while taking her out about 5 paths wide around the turn. Into the turn St. Trinians seized the lead while Zenyatta mustered her decimating drive from behind and followed into the stretch, swinging 6 paths out. Down the stretch the two mares flew to the frenzied cheers of the crowd, St. Trinians led Zenyatta by about a length and a half and it appeared for a moment that the great mare was about to face the first loss of her stellar career. Then the champion in Zenyatta awoke with a fury and stride by stride she began to reel in a courageous St. Trinians. The roars of the crowd now drowned out all other sounds as the wire approached and Zenyatta reached St. Trinians throat. Across the wire and Zenyatta had surged ahead, seizing her 17th consecutive winning portrait with ears pricked yet again, one last tease as if to let the competition and her fans know that it wasn’t that hard after all. A crash of noise cascaded across the track as the stunning mare galloped out down the backstretch.

I have rarely heard such joy from a crowd, the noise was incredible, it can only be described as pure ecstasy. Those fans were there for one thing only, and it wasn’t betting, they were there to show their love of one great, great horse. If you were unable to see the race before, you must make sure to watch it now. It’s not just the race itself that is amazing, it’s the reaction of the crowd afterward.



Thursday, June 10, 2010

Long-Distance Clash of the Titans: Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta

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Though Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta will be separated by almost an entire nation this weekend when they race, the one in Kentucky and the other in California, every single move they make will be compared to the other. The immense rivalry between these two came into full light last year when both athletes finished off the year with perfect records and both defeated older males impressively. They were literally the only candidates considered for Horse of the Year honors and legions of enthusiastic fans on both sides were adamant that their horse was the better and more deserving of the championship. It made for fantastic publicity, excitement and fun debate but when it was all said and done 3-year-old filly Rachel Alexandra took home the crown.

Now in 2010 Zenyatta, the Champion Older Female of 2008 and 2009, has remained undefeated in both her starts while reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra has failed to win any of her two starts to date.

On Wednesday majority owner Jess Jackson announced un-fashionably late that Rachel Alexandra would be making her third start of the year in Churchill Downs Fleur de Lis Handicap (gr.2) on June 12. Rachel Alexandra comes into the Fleur de Lis with a series of 5 consecutive works that began shortly after her defeat in the La Troienne Stakes six weeks ago. Her last move came on Monday when she went five-eighths of a mile in 1:02 4/5, one week earlier she dazzled her connections with a six furlong work that went in 1:11 1/5. According to the BloodHorse her internal fractions for the six furlong move at both 3 and 5 furlongs mark were so fast that they beat the “bullets” of the day at those distances. Prior to her incredible 6 furlong work she went 5 furlongs in a sizzling 1:00 2/5. One important thing to note is that she also posted strong numbers for her gallop outs at the 7 furlong mark. She is looking even stronger and far sharper than she was coming into the La Troienne. If there is ever a time for the real Rachel to make a comeback now is it.

Toting high weight of 124 pounds, Rachel Alexandra will be giving form 7 to 11 pounds to her opposition. She will face just four rivals in the Fleur de Lis and of those four only Made for Magic and Jessica is Back have stakes wins to their credit.

Made for Magic won the Milady Handicap (gr.2) at Hollywood Park on May 16th. She will be looking for her third win of the year and has managed to win 3 of her 9 career starts on the dirt.

Jessica is Back last finished second in the Sixty Sails Handicap (gr.3) on April 17th and last year she posted four Beyer speed figures that topped the 100 mark.

Distinctive Dixie finished 5th in the La Troienne last out behind Unrivaled Belle and Rachel Alexandra. Multipass rounds out the field and will be looking for her first stakes win of the year.

I know I’ve said this the last two times, but this really is Rachel Alexandra’s race to lose. She has run two terrific races this year already and her works now are looking just like they did last year when she was popping out wins left and right. I expect her to win by open lengths here and hopefully see her return to her fabulous winning form.

Across the country Zenyatta will be shooting for a modern day record of 17 straight victories in the Vanity Handicap

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(gr.1) and will also be attempting to win the race for the third consecutive time having already captured both the 2009 and 2008 renditions.

I have just one thing to say about her racing here. She should have been in the Stephen Foster Handicap this weekend instead of the Vanity, that is where she belongs and that is the only place where she might have actually had some quality horses that could give her a challenge. Now the big story is the lack of pace she will have to overcome in the Vanity. Is there anyone who really believes a slow pace will slow down Zenyatta. I don’t think so. I will most certainly be rooting for her to win her 17th consecutive race and remain undefeated but the clear and painfully obvious fact is that John Sherriffs and the Mosses are ducking the competition. Not because they don’t feel they can win, but because they are in a comfort zone right now, they feel completely unthreatened by anyone racing this year. So far Zenyatta has given no indication that she can’t win another Breeders’ Cup Classic for them and if that happens and she remains undefeated it’s going to take one incredible horse with some unprecedented racing feats to beat her out of Horse of the Year. Maybe Quality Road can challenge her, but even if he wins most of his races before the Breeders’ Cup and Zenyatta remains in California she still has the upper hand. She proved herself the master of the males last year as did Rachel Alexandra, but unlike Rachel Alexandra she has continued to dominate in devastating style this year. She could conceivably remain in the California until the Breeders’ Cup and still win Horse of the Year because we all know what she is capable of and voters might feel she was perhaps the best last year. Reputation means a lot and Zenyatta has the best around.

While I appreciate that the Mosses brought her out of retirement to race her for an unprecedented 4th year, I would like to see them make good on some of their more encouraging words. Right after they announced their decision to keep Zenyatta out of retirement Jerry Moss said “We’ll run against anybody, gender is not a factor”. Gender was supposed to not be a factor this year and so far to date they aren’t running against anybody, they are running against nobodies. This year was supposed to be about showing Zenyatta to the fans across the country and not just through a TV screen. So far it’s still just California and Arkansas.

Sunday, June 6, 2010

The Belmont and Vanity

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The 2010 Triple Crown is officially over, another Belmont Stakes champion has been crowned and I am feeling a little confused. What kind of Triple Crown was this? It felt more like a mangled jumble of new faces in each race than an elite series for the nation’s leading 3-year-olds. There were only 8 young three year olds that competed in two legs of the Triple Crown this year and not a single one competed in all three. The Preakness Stakes seemed to make some sense as I believe that Lookin At Lucky is truly a very special colt and will go on to another championship season. The Kentucky Derby was run in the mud and finishes in those condition almost never makes sense but Super Saver is obviously a good horse and Ice Box too. The Belmont Stakes was a complete shake-up. At the wire it was WinStar Farm’s Drosselmeyer at odds of 13-1 who held off a furious late charging rally by Fly Down to take the victory. Heavy betting favorite Ice Box was nowhere to be found, finishing up the track in 8th, but I agree with trainer Nick Zito when he said that Ice Box is much better than that. Third place finisher First Dude proved yet again that he is one of the best 3-year-olds in the country by holding on gamely to lose by less than 2 lengths after setting most of the pace up front.

Drosselmeyer, with new jockey Mike Smith aboard got a perfect Belmont ride and was able to inch past First Dude in the homestretch while finishing looking very strong. I’m not sure that I think he will be one of the top three colts this year but this is a huge improvement off his last two tries in graded stakes races. Drosselmeyer gave Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott his first win in the Belmont Stakes.

In other news one of racings all time greatest will be making her way back to the track this weekend to contest a third consecutive Vanity Handicap. Multiple-champion Zenyatta will be trying to win her third straight Vanity on June 13th

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and her 17th straight victory overall. She is currently tied with such greats as Triple Crown winner Citation and 1990’s superstar Cigar in winning 16 straight races. While the former two won their skeins of races in the midst of glittering careers dotted with the occasional loss, Zenyatta is absolutely and completely perfect in her career so far.

In a very disappointing turn her connections have moved her back to California to race yet again on synthetics after implying that they would pursue a more fan-friendly, dirt based campaign this year, but it is still Zenyatta and anyone who is evenly slightly interested in this sport should watch this race.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

The 142nd Belmont Stakes

The post positions for the 142nd running of the June 5th Belmont Stakes have been drawn and a large field of 12 eager young contestants are ready to take their shot at a place in history. While there is no Derby or Preakness winner attempting to capture a second classic this year the field is far from unexciting and makes for a racing fans dream.

Taking the number one hole is Dave In Dixie with Kentucky Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel up. Earlier in the year this guy was pretty well situated on many Kentucky Derby lists as a legitimate threat but after a string of very uninspiring runs the colt has faded into the background. He turned heads with his runner-up effort in the Robert B. Lewis after posting a furious late rally from the back of the field and making up a ton of ground.

In post two is Spangled Star and jockey Garrett Gomez, the longest shot in the field at 30-1. This guy hasn’t impressed yet this year and his connections have even said they don’t expect him to win but never underestimate a long-shot in the Belmont.

Uptowncharlybrown will break from post number three with jockey Rajiv Maragh for new trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He last finished third to Exhi in the Lexington Stakes in April marking his third consecutive loss of the year. I wouldn’t count this guy out of any of the top four spots though, he seems to be a fairly consistent runner although I’m not sure that he will like the 1 ½ miles in the Belmont.

Make Music for Me will be breaking from the four hole under jockey Joel Rosario, the same number he finished at in the Kentucky Derby. There is potential for a great story; if Make Music for Me wins the Belmont, trainer Alexis Barba will become the first female trainer in history to not just win the Belmont Stakes, but the first female trainer to ever win a classic. That in itself would be a really good marketing angle for the race but Make Music for Me is no slouch and I believe he could get up for third or fourth.

In post position number five Fly Down and jockey John Velazquez start as the second runner for trainer Nick Zito behind race favorite Ice Box. Fly Down has won three of his last four starts with his last effort an impressive 6 length victory in the Dwyer Stakes (gr.2) at Belmont Park. In the Dwyer he easily defeated fellow Belmont Stakes contender Drosselmeyer along with five other over-matched rivals. This colt looks like a fast improving runner and has had plenty of time to recover from his Dwyer victory, don’t be surprised if he steals the entire show or at least takes the show spot.

Ice Box with jockey Jose Lezcano up will break from post six for trainer Nick Zito. He comes into the Belmont as the

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favorite off his astonishing second place finish in the Kentucky Derby. In the Kentucky Derby he encountered probably more trouble than any other horse in the field and still managed to close from the rear of the field, work his way through horses and switch on a turn of foot that would put Zenyatta to shame. He entered the Derby off a similar style race in the Florida Derby, a race which he won by a nose, and with the added distance of the Belmont Stakes and the long Belmont stretch this race looks like it will suit the chestnut colt just fine. He has been working lights-out leading up to the Belmont which is typical Nick Zito handling.

Drosselmeyer and jockey Mike Smith take the seven hole in the Belmont field. Drosselmeyer started the year out right with a win against an allowance field but has since been working his way back up from first a fourth place finish in the Risen Star, then a third in the Louisiana Derby and last out finishing second to Fly Down in the Dwyer Stakes. He gets a new rider in the Belmont after having the services of Kent Desormeaux in seven of his eight lifetime starts. His works have been okay leading up to the Belmont but nothing that is going to turn heads and make you think he can get into the top four in the race at this point.

In post position eight Game On Dude and jockey Martin Garcia carry the hopes of trainer Bob Baffert to win his second classic race of the year after capturing the Preakness with Lookin At Lucky. The Awesome Again gelding enters off a great winning performance in the Lone Star Derby and trainer Bob Baffert  thinks he is in very good shape for a Belmont run.

Blue Grass Stakes winner Stately Victor and jockey Alan Garcia will be breaking from post number nine. After posting his visually impressive upset win in the Blue Grass Stately Victor finished a respectable eight in the Kentucky Derby slop. The son of Ghostzapper posted a very good five furlong work at Churchill Downs on May 25th before shipping in to Belmont and I have a feeling his Blue Grass wasn’t a fluke. If he has inherited any of his sire’s incredible talent then he should be able to run with the big guns here. I’d say a third place finish isn’t out of the question but won’t be surprised if he pulls another upset.

Stay Put and jockey Jamie Theriot take post number ten at odds of 20-1. He has won both of his allowance company races this year and finished fifth in both of his graded stakes attempts. His works leading up to the Belmont haven’t been particularly fast but they have been to the satisfaction of his connections. His form is great at this point and while he might be a colt on the improve he just doesn’t look like he’s in the same league as the top three, Ice Box, Fly Down and First Dude.

First Dude and jockey Ramon Dominguez break from post number eleven. After shocking the racing world with a gritty second place finish in the Preakness after setting murderous fractions on the front end, First Dude warrants more than a second look in the Belmont. He will have a much tougher job in the Belmont breaking from an outside post if he wants to take the lead but his stride is tremendous and with Belmont’s long stretch and sweeping turns it might not actually be that difficult for him to work his way to the front. The danger of a front runner in the Belmont is when they speed through early fractions and then come up empty in the stretch of the grueling 1 ½ mile test. First Dude is one big colt and looks like one of the fastest improving in the field but I think the distance will be too much for him if he tries to lead the whole way. I wouldn’t leave out of my top three pick for any reason though and I would love to see him steal the top prize.

Interactif and jockey Javier Castellano take post position twelve in the Belmont as the only starter for Kentucky Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher. We last saw Interactif finishing fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Stately Victor and prior to that he handed in a pair of second place finishes for remain winless so far this year. He was brilliant on the turf last year but the Triple Crown fever has apparently been too much for his connections and he finds himself entered in the Belmont. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race once before in 2007 when the talented filly Rags To Riches defeated dual Horse of the Year Curlin by a head. I think this is a very classy colt but I just don’t think he is as good on dirt as he is on turf.

Ice Box is a deserving favorite and if he gets a good pace to close into and changes leads properly I think it is his race to lose. Fly Down, First Dude and Stately Victory round out my top four choices with Dave In Dixie being my long shot choice.