Jackson Bend Is In: Derby Dozen

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I decided to post my Derby Dozen selections for the first time since the beginning of the year. The plan was to keep one going throughout the year until Steve from Wire Players invited me to participate in their collaborative Derby Dozen, so I dropped my own personal dozen. Now with all the reshuffling going on the earnings list Jackson Bend enters the field due to the defections of horses like Eskendereya and Rule. I am a huge fan of Jackson Bend and was very pleased to see that he will get a well deserved chance to make a run for the roses. Pletchers filly Devil May Care is now a definite Derby starter and Interactif is, according to Pletcher, very doubtful to enter the race. If Interactif does drop out of contention that opens up one more spot for a horse like Backtalk to fill in. Noble’s Promise as expected, is now confirmed for the Kentucky Derby after showing trainer Kenny McPeek that he is in top physical form. So here, after only a 3 month break is my final Derby Dozen.

1)      Lookin At Lucky-Finally regains his well-deserved title of favorite. Baffert seems to have helped him rediscover his luck at Churchill Downs, now he just needs to hold onto it until Saturday evening.

2)      Noble’s Promise-Earned his way in through his excellent works and appears ready to finish “lookin” At Lukcy’s butt again.

3)      Jackson Bend-The bridesmaid of the year finally gets into the Derby after a slew of defections. He may be the easiest choice to fill out your exacta wager you’ll ever make.

4)      Sidney’s Candy-Made a sweet statement with his first Churchill Downs workout. His staying speed could be compromised by so many other speed horses running, but he looks very ratable.

5)      Ice Box-This guy is as cool as a cucumber and has been working very crisply for his run for the roses. His running style is the absolute perfect style to have this year and his record indicates he is quickly improving.

6)      Dublin-The luck of the Irish could still come his way, so long as it’s not too busy blessing Lookin At Lucky. His 2010 performances, while not victories were still good efforts and he only lost the Arkansas Derby by less than a length, Lukas will have him ready to run his best race you can be sure.

7)      Paddy O’Prado-Looks like one of the best live long-shots in the Derby field at this point. Churchill Downs appears to be treating him very well and he owns one of the best Kentucky Derby works to date.

8)      Devil May Care-I’m not sure if the Devil Care’s that she runs in the Derby or not, but I’m sure the boys care and the girls are probably very happy to see her leave the Oaks field.

9)      Endorsement-If he wins this one Shannon Ritter becomes the first female trainer to ever win the Derby, in 2009 that would have practically been a “lock”, not so sure it happens in 2010.

10)    Stately Victor-His Bluegrass was a better race than most people think and he looked fantastic galloping out after the win.

11)   Awesome Act-Could be the forgotten horse coming into the Derby off his un-awesome third place Wood Memorial finish. He probably won’t win but he might be good enough for 4^th or even 3^rd.

12)   Conveyance-Bob Baffert knows how to get a horse to the Derby better than anyone, so don’t leave him off you tickets just because he looks like the “speed” that will break coming off the backstretch. He is another one who is working beautifully over Churchill Down’s dirt surface.

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A New Favorite: Changing Scenes

Though Saturday’s running of the Derby Trial produced no change in the Kentucky Derby graded earnings standings,

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one thing has changed the picture drastically. Derby favorite Eskendereya has been removed from race consideration because of a filling in his left front leg. The news came folowing days of speculation which started after several works for Eskendereya were cancelled. Eskendereya is the second winner of the Wood Memorial to be removed from the race after injury, following last year’s I Want Revenge.

Now jockey John Velazquez finds himself without a Derby mount but that will probably change seeing as he is the regular rider for filly Devil May Care. With trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Greathouse seriously considering entering the 3-year-old daughter of Malibu Moon against the boys in the Derby over the girls in the Kentucky Oaks, he could find himself riding another strong contender.

Eskendereya was coming into the Derby off three consecutive victories this year, the last two coming in the Fountain of Youth Stakes by more than 8 lengths and the Wood Memorial by an over powering 9 ¾ lengths. Those two efforts accounted for the two most impressive Kentucky Derby preps of the year and solidified his status as the horse to beat on the first Saturday in May.

With Eskendereya’s defection from the race Lookin At Lucky is once again taking on the role of race favorite for trainer Bob Baffert after losing it to Eskendereya earlier in the year.

Hurricane Ike took the Derby Trial by storm Saturday and make absolutely certain the race would have no affect on the overall picture of the Kentucky Derby field. By winning the Derby Trial Hurricane Ike and jockey Calvin Borel destroyed any hope the connections of Eightyfiveinafify and Pleasant Prince had of entering the Kentucky Derby starting gate. As the race favorite Eightfiveinafifty yet again showed greenness and immaturity while running down the stretch and drifting very wide across the track to finish a dull fourth. Pleasant Prince fared little better in the finish, coming home 6 ¾ lengths behind second place finisher Aikenite in third. Calvin Borel owned the day at Churchill Downs Saturday, finishing the day with five wins, the last coming in the Derby Trial aboard Hurricane Ike.

Though the loss of Eskendereya to trainer Todd Pletcher’s stable is immense he will still be entering the Kentucky Derby holding the most powerful hand of any one trainer this year. With colts like Super Saver, Rule, Discreetly Mine and Mission Impazible entered and Interactif also being considered for the race Pletcher still has a power-house, and if Devil May Care is entered as well his chances are about 6 in 20 of winning the Derby.

Rachel Alexandra is poised to make headlines yet again. On Saturday owner Jess Jackson announced the reigning horse of the year would make her second start of the year in Churchill Down’s La Troienne Stakes (gr.2) on April 30^th.

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Speculation has been running rampant that the La Troienne would be Rachel Alexandra’s next start, but true to form Jackson failed to make a decision until the last minute. In the La Troienne Rachel Alexandra will be facing Zardana again after finishing second to her in her 2010 debut and also the fleet-footed filly Careless Jewel. Last year Careless Jewel was the second best 3-year-old filly in the land only to Rachel Alexandra. Their meeting will be very anticipated as well as Rachel’s second show-down with Zardana. If works are any indication then Rachel Alexandra is closer to her old self than she has been the entire year and looks ready to run back to her spectacular 2009 form. A victory here would be her launch to hopefully yet another chance for a match-up with the great Zenyatta.

I will be attending the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks for the first time ever this year, something I have wanted to do since I was 11 years old. Living in CT doesn’t make Churchill Downs the most convenient location but the drive is well worth the reward. I know using exclamation points is supposed to be like “laughing at yourself” when you’re writing but I can’t resist this one time; I am excited!

The Derby Trial: One Final Prep

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After years of neglect, the Derby Trial is finally just that, a trial to prepare for the Kentucky Derby. The race is back to where it belongs and all because the competition this year is hotter than a steel playground at noon. As a last ditch attempt at entering the gate on the first Saturday in May, Pleasant Prince and Eightyfiveinafifty will attempt to win the Derby Trial and garner enough earnings to make the graded earnings list.

Currently Pleasant Prince has $162,500 worth of graded earnings and with the winners share of the Derby Trial coming to $120,000 he would be assured of getting into the Derby starting gate if that is indeed the plan. In his last race, Pleasant Prince finished second by a nose to Ice Box in the Florida Derby (Gr.1) while showing a strong sustained run in the stretch. He will be vying for favoritism with the speed, and untested Egithyfiveinafifty. With owner Kenneth Ramsey stating that Pleasant Prince would most likely start in the Derby if he wins the Derby Trial it seems the only thing that can stop a Derby run now would be a defeat in the Trial.

Eightyfiveinafifty’s graded earnings come to exactly $120,000 at this time which means that even if he wins the Derby Trial he still isn’t guaranteed a spot in the Derby unless there are some defections farther up the list. After starting the

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year out with a bang by winning his maiden race in January by a smashing 17 ½ lengths, Eightyfiveinafifty next blew the turn in the February 6th Whirlaway Stakes as the favorite. After taking some time off the recuperate from some minor issues caused by his disastrous Whirlaway performance, Eightyfiveinafifty returned in the Bay Shore Stakes (Gr.3) in early April with an impressive 2 ½ length victory. During the running of the one-turn Bay Shore, Eightyfiveinafifty portrayed immaturity and greenness after keeping his head turned completely to the left through the first half of the race, staring with intent curiosity into the infield. Despite his being unfocused, he still won the race going away after leading almost the entire way.

The rest of the field will have pretty much zero chance of making the Derby field even if they win because of the high earnings cut-off this year, so the focus will be squarely placed on Pleasant Prince and Eightyfiveinafifty. If Eightyfiveinafifty can be controlled and show more maturity in the Derby Trial than he did in his two previous starts then I think he will win this one with relative ease. He strikes me as the kind of horse that isn’t just a “one turn speed-horse wonder”. Pleasant Prince should receive a good trip with Eightyfiveinafifty most likely setting strong fractions on the front end and could have a nice pace to close into like he did in the Florida Derby.

We have finally arrived at the last Kentucky Derby prep of the season, the final leg is upon us. Savor these last few moments because before we know it the first Saturday in May will have arrived and all our questions will be answered.

The Derby Trial isn’t the only big race this weekend but before I go over some of the more exciting fields, I would be

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remiss if I did not mention one of the most impressive Derby works to date. Lookin At Lucky made an emphatic statement on Wednesday in his first work over the Churchill Downs surface. Looking every bit the champion he is, Lookin At Lucky flew over the dirt surface to post a bullet six furlong work in 1:12 flat. If that won’t turn heads I’m not sure what will, but one thing is for sure; Bob Baffert has this talented colt in the best condition of his life and he appears ready to run his best race yet, and that’s saying something.

In Saturday’s Grade 2 San Francisco Mile Stakes the ever consistent 7-year-old Bold Chieftain will try for his first graded stakes victory of his career. I’ll be rooting the tough old warrior to win again while facing multiple graded stakes winner Monterey Jazz.

D’Funnybone will attempt to remain the nation’s top three year old sprinter when he takes on five other rivals in the April 24^th Withers Stakes (Gr.3). Despite having plenty of graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field and having won several prestigious three-year-old races this year, D’Funnybone will be skipping the Derby in favor of making the premier sprints in the country.

2010 Kentucky Derby: Less Than Two Weeks Away

Did the Lexington Stakes help clear the Derby picture, or just serve to make things more complicated? The answer is that it had absolutely no affect on the Kentucky Derby field, except that it confirms the fact that none of the Lexington Stakes contenders will enter the Derby gate due to insufficient earnings. For horses like Jackson Bend and Backtalk who are currently on the outside looking in, this is potentially good news. If horses with doubtful status for the Derby drop out, such as Noble’s Promise or Interactif, Jackson Bend is next in line on the graded earning s list with Backtalk right behind.

With the Derby Trial being run this weekend and Pleasant Prince and Eightfiveinafifty both shooting for a win and a

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Derby berth, the final field is still not certain. The Derby Trial has rarely been used as a prep to the Kentucky Derby in recent years due to the fact that it is only one week before the Derby. Decades ago nobody would have given a second thought to running a promising young colt back after one week in the Derby, but today’s colts and fillies are treated like fine, breakable china. You would think it’s harmful to run them more than once every four weeks. It is nice to see that tradition being broken this year and hopefully this can an example for other trainers in the future.

Over the past week high-profile Derby contenders have been arriving at Churchill Downs, hitting the track and recording serious works in preparation for the biggest race of their careers to-date. Dublin was among those who recorded one of the most, if not the most impressive work so far. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee swept through a swift 5 furlong work in a stunning time of :59.20. His was the fasted time of 44 horses running the same distance and proves that he has taken beautifully to the Churchill surface, good news for all his supporters.

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The most impressive work overall and the most anticipated came from 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and it was a smashing performance. Gliding over the Churchill Downs surface looking like the Rachel of old who went 8 for 8 last year, Rachel Alexandra sizzled a six furlong bullet work in 1:11.40. After the work trainer Steve Asmussen expressed his delight with the way Rachel has completed her last three works, calling this latest move “crazy good”. There is still no decision yet on where the super-filly will appear next but many strongly suspect she will appear next in the La Troienne Stakes on April 30^th on Kentucky Oaks day. Something tells me she would have been ready to run back to her 2009 form in the Apple Blossom facing Zenyatta after observing the way she started working after finishing second to Zardana in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes.

Hot Dixie Chick will be making her second start of the year in the Eight Belles Stakes (Gr.3) $100,000 after winning her

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2010 debut in the Prima Donna very impressively. I was hoping to see this talented and speedy filly in the Kentucky Oaks after her smashing comeback this year but apparently trainer Steve Asmussen doesn’t think that is the best avenue for her. Regardless of where she runs it will be fun and exciting to see the talented Grade 1 winning daughter of Dixie Union once again strutting her stuff.

More later on the Derby Trail field and some of the major races this coming weekend.

The Lexington Stakes: The Final Prep

This weekend’s Lexington Stakes will officially be the last Kentucky Derby prep of the year, although races such as the Derby Trial do present the opportunity for more horses to get some last minute earnings, the prep races officially end this weekend but the real race hasn’t even started. For months and months on end the most important, influential and wealthy people in racing dedicate themselves to finding one special horse. One horse that will forever change their lives and stamp their names in the history books alongside those of the immortals from past decades. The Kentucky Derby is the race of all races, the one that every trainer, owner and jockey desires to win. It is the Pink Panther of all diamonds, the 1968 Shelby Cobra GT 500-KR Mustang of all sports cars and the Holy Grail of thoroughbred horse racing. In short, it is probably the hardest and most coveted race in the world to win.

Two weeks from Saturday the 136^th Kentucky Derby will take place and one horse will finish ahead of 19 vanquished

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foes, to be immortalized forever but until the horses enter the starting gate, the game is not over yet. In the Lexington Stakes one horse has a chance of entering the Derby gate and even if he should win, his status for the Derby remains uncertain. Connemara, a horse that I quite honestly forgot about in the last month. His graded earnings currently stand at $138,500 and with the Lexington Stakes winner’s purse of $180,000 he would just make the Derby field. On February 20^th, the same day that Derby favorite Eskendereya was playing “catch me” with his opponents in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes, Connemara won the El Camino Real Derby (Gr.3) by a diminishing length in California. Both colts are offspring of talented young sire Giant’s Causeway, both have stunning chestnut coats and present a tall striking image. That is where the similarities stop though. While Eskendereya runs as close to the pace as he can, Connemara does his best running from the back of the pack. Instead of launching one quick, stunning turn of foot around the turn to gain the lead, he tends to be more of a grinder.  He slowly accelerates around the turn until he gains enough speed to begin picking off his opposition in the stretch.

The Lexington Stakes will be Connemara’s first start on polytrack and he breaks from post position 10 in the field of 12. His biggest challenge appears to be Uptowncharlybrown, winner of the Pasco Stakes in the beginning of the year and 5th

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place finisher behind Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby in March. Uptowncharlybrown will most likely take much of the support in

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the race due to the fact that his trainer, Alan Seewald, passed away at the age of 62 on Monday. Connemara and Uptowncharlybrown represent the only two horses with fairly recognizable names in the race as the rest of the field is completed by one stakes winner in Exhi. The rest of the field enters the race with only allowance and maiden wins to their credit.

The Todd Pletcher trained Connemara looks like he has a class-edge over the field here assuming he takes to the dirt and is able to run his race.

Uptowncharlybrown is the obvious second choice and the hard part is trying to decide who might finish out the top three. Krypton won an allowance race by more than 6 lengths a couple weeks ago at Keenland and looks like the best shot at an upset here.

Shaken, Stirred and on the Rocks

A lot has happened over this past weekend in relation to the Kentucky Derby scene which has been drastically re-altered due to some very surprising race results. It seems like the line-up of horses with graded earnings for the Derby has been shaken, stirred and many contestants tossed out onto the rocks. I have had a busy weekend and beginning of the week so I wanted to just be able to step back and absorb everything before I jumped in and wrote about it all.

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The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes produced the biggest shocker of the weekend and what’s even more shocking is that it looks legitimate. Stately Victor, who entered the Blue Grass with only 1 win in 7 lifetime starts and his last five starts resulting in off the board finishes, showed a sustained drive in the stretch to win at odds of 40-1. If this race had been on dirt and not polytrack this son of Ghostzapper would probably be much higher on people’s Derby lists than he is right now. He currently ranks number 9 on the graded earnings list after his Blue Grass victory. Paddy O’Prado finished second to Stately Victor which gave him enough graded earnings to put him right at number 19 on the list. Finishing third in the Blue Grass was First Dude who stands zero chance of making the Derby with earning of only $97,500. Almost any other year that would have been sufficient but this year seems to be running under a full head of steam and there is no room for any competition error at this point, time is almost up.

The three top choices in the Blue Grass, Interactif, Pleasant Prince and Odysseus all finished off the board with Interactif securing 4^th place. Pleasant Prince finished 7^th, and Odysseus finished last of 9 after helping set a brisk pace throughout the race. It was discovered after the race that Odysseus has a bone chip in the back of his left knee which has effectively knocked him off of the Derby trail. Hopefully we’ll see this guy come back later in the year as I strongly believe we didn’t yet see the best of his talents.

The Arkansas Derby was almost as surprising as the Blue Grass Stakes, but in

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the end the results seemed to make much more sense. Front-running Line of David, making his first start on dirt led a highly-touted field of three year old colts on a merry chase around the Oaklawn Park oval to win gate-to-wire.

Entering the stretch in appeared the 17-1 shot was finished as big guns Super Saver and Dublin were breathing down his neck to the outside. Instead of folding as it appeared, Line of David fought back fiercely on the inside and maintained a neck advantage the length of the stretch over Super Saver who was neck ahead of Dublin. Those three hit the wire in exactly the same positions with Uh Oh Bango finishing fourth and race favorite, Noble’s Promise finishing 5^th after a nightmarish trip. In winning the richest Derby prep in the country Line of David increased his earnings by $600,000 vaulting him to number 6 on the graded earnings list. He has now won three consecutive races, the two previous to the Arkansas Derby coming on the turf at Santa Anita. His winning streak began when trainer John Sadler decided to add blinkers to his equipment.

Fourth place finisher Uh Oh Bango fractured his left front cannon bone in the running of the Arkansas Derby and is now off the Derby trail. Aside from Buddy’s Saint and now Odysseus and Uh Oh Bango there have been far fewer injuries this year than there were last year when it seemed high-profile contenders were dropping out each week or two with an injury.

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The Derby status of Noble’s Promise, who currently stands at number 2 on the graded earnings list with $738,000, is undecided. He exited the race with several cuts on his front legs and a lung infection was discovered later. Trainer Kenny McPeek seems to think he is doing much better now but will not say he is definite for the Derby yet although he is headed for Churchill Downs.

With the Coolmoore Lexington Stakes being run this weekend, more horses could be casting their lots into the earnings picture which would reshuffle the picture yet again. As of now trainer Todd Pletcher is doubtful that Interactif will make the Derby field which will make room for Jackson Bend to enter unless someone gets an earnings boost with a win in the Lexington Stakes this weekend. If a horse like Homeboykris who is undeserving of his #20 placing were to be removed that would free things up nicely. We will just have to see how things pan out this weekend and go from there.

Zenyatta:Bullfrog Among Tadpoles

It’s official, Zenyatta has joined the ranks of the all time greats with one of the most incredible feats in thoroughbred

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racing history: 16 wins in 16 lifetime starts, a perfect career. The great race mare has now equaled the record of 16 consecutive wins set by Triple Crown winner Citation and Cigar. On April 9^th at Oaklawn Park in front of more than 44,000 screaming fans, Zenyatta waltzed home to the easiest victory of her awe inspiring career, winning the Apple Blossom Handicap by more than 4 lengths. On April 8^th, just one day prior to Zenyatta’s historic win, legendary undefeated race mare Personal Ensign passed away of natural causes at the age of 26 at Claiborne Farm in Kentucky. Her mantle of greatness has now been passed onto the immense shoulders of Zenyatta who looks sure to keep the ball rolling. She is now the Bullfrog among tadpoles.

The Apple Blossom Handicap looked like just another paid workout for Zenyatta as once again the imposing daughter of Street Cry crushed her few opponents in the easiest fashion possible. Breaking from the gate slowest of all, Zenyatta took her customary position at the rear of the 5 horse field and stayed there down the entire backstretch. Calvin Borel on Be Fair took the field through fractions of :24.07 and :48.19 before Taptam took over down the backstretch. As the field approached the far turn Zenyatta began to slightly extend her lead and jockey Mike Smith held on for the ride as she angled wide around the turn and blazed on by the leaders. Down the stretch it was just a matter of how much Mike Smith wanted to win by as with ears pricked Zenyatta coasted past the stands packed with thousands of jubilant adoring fans. After crossing the wire 4 ¼ lengths in front, Mike Smith paraded Zenyatta before her legions of cheering fans before making her way to the winners circle.

Her next start in undecided at this point but all options are on the table with the main goal of the year being the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs this fall.

The margin of victory here was deceivingly good, she could have won by 10 or even 20. When you stop to think of it, easy doesn’t even come close to describing the style of win here, effortless is much closer to the truth and in fact this did indeed look completely effortless on Zenyatta’s part. I wonder what Jess Jackson is thinking about his chances at winning Horse of the Year in 2010 with both Zenyatta and Quality Road tearing up the track this year.

On a final note slightly off topic, did anyone else notice the startling physical resemblance between War Echo and

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Curlin? Obviously Curlin is a male and much larger, muscular and much more talented

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but their markings and everything appearance-wise are very similar.

Don’t forget to watch the Bluegrass Stakes and Arkansas Derby today, enjoy races and good luck!

Apple Blossom, Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass Stakes

This weekend can pretty much be called a two-day gala with Friday’s Apple Blossom Handicap and Saturyday’s Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass Stakes. Granted the Apple Blossom is one race so it’s hardly a gala but when you consider that Zenyatta is the race headliner the scenario changes in seconds. The great undefeated Zenyatta could conceivably steal the weekend show and will most likely garner as much if not much more attention than both Kentucky Derby preps put together. That’s not to say the fields for the Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass Stakes are weak and unworthy of consideration. Quite the contrary in fact, but the overwhelming star power of racings greatest mare of all time is just too much competition to ask of talented  young three year old colts.

The Apple Blossom Invitational Handicap was setting up as the meeting point

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of two of the greatest females ever to grace the track in racing history earlier this year when the respective parties of Champion Zenyatta and Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra agree to enter for a purse of $5 million dollars. Unfortunately Rachel Alexandra was withdrawn from consideration when she lost the New Orleans Ladies Stakes in her season debut and her connections felt she was not yet ready to face Zenyatta. The Apple Blossom Handicap is now a one horse show and it’s all about Zenyatta. Is there anyone left who is brave enough to actually state outright that they are choosing against Zenyatta anymore and that their horse actually stands a chance? It’s almost laughable to think she might lose the race.

Undefeated in 15 lifetime starts, Zenyatta is perfection in motion and over the course of the last three years has been defying everything the history books and experts say should and shouldn’t be possible. In the Apple Blossom she will going for her 16^th straight victory, that’s the real race here. If she succeeds she will have equaled the feat of the incredible 1948 Triple Crown champion Citation and will enter the record books as the greatest mare in the history of this illustrious sport. Zenyatta will be making just her

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second start on natural dirt in the Apple Blossom after winning the 2008 renewal of the Apple Blossom. In the 2008 Apple Blossom she went off as the second choice, it was the first and only time in her life that she was not sent off as the favorite. This time around she will be the overwhelming favorite seeing as she has been a sure thing in this sport up to this point and there are no indications that situation is about to change anytime soon. Zenyatta just keeps climbing the ladder of prominence higher and higher with no end in sight, when she stops is anyone’s guess.

Only four brave souls were entered against Zenyatta this time around and not a one has a single grade 1 win to her credit. Leading the lagging pack is Larry

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and Cindy Jones’ Just Jenda, the only other graded stakes winner in the field aside from Zenyatta. She enters the Apple Blossom on a three race losing streak, her last victory coming in the Monmouth Oaks (gr.3) in the summer of 2009.

War Echo enters the race off a well-beaten 5^th place finish in the Azeri Stakes in which she finished behind 4^th place finisher Just Jenda. She has lost both her 2010 starts.

Taptam enters off a 9^th place finish in the Azeri, but previously won two consecutive starts. This will be her first time trying the 9 furlong distance.

Be Fair holds the distinction of being the only contestant to enter the Apple Blossom with a victory in her last start, aside from Zenyatta that is who has only victories to her credit. She won an allowance race at Oaklawn this year in early March.

The field entered against Zenyatta pales horribly in comparison with her powerful image and their records are so drastically different that it’s almost impossible to compare them. Suffice it to say this could be billed as the equivalent of a singing contest between Celine Dion and four preschoolers.

The Arkansas Derby boasts a very strong field of graded stakes winners and

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“supporting cast” Kentucky Derby prospects just waiting to steal the spot light. From the powerhouse stable of Todd Pletcher comes one of his most prized pupils. Super Saver was installed as the slight favorite in the Arkansas Derby off his close third place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby behind a victorious Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams. He had previously won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr.2) at Churchill Downs as a juvenile by more than 5 lengths. Calvin Borel gets the mount on the front-running favorite. The suspicion here is that they will attempt to get this colt to rate off the pace this time around. He did very well in the Tampa Bay Derby to hold onto third by half a length after setting the fractions up front.

Noble’s Promise enters this race off one of the strongest losing efforts on the Derby trail so far this year. In his last start he finished a neck behind Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel Stakes over the same course in his 3-year-old debut. This tough-luck colt has finished behind Lookin At Lucky every time the two face each other, but with the Lookin At Lucky not entered this time around it appears to be his race to lose. He shows up every time and runs his heart out so you can bet he’ll be competitive in the Arkansas Derby.

Dublin has not quite failed to live up to the billing trainer D. Wayne Lukas bestowed upon him last year, but neither has he done a whole lot to reinforce his highly-touted billing. The talented son of  Afleet Alex last won the

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Hopefull Stakes (gr.1) in September. He finished a strong second in his 3-year-old debut in the Southwest Stakes (gr.3) then followed that up with a 3^rd place finish to Lookin At Lucky and Noble’s Promise in the Rebel Stakes. He has proven himself to be very consistent this year but has yet to capture that elusive victory.

Northern Giant, Uh Oh Bango, Pulsion, New Madrid, Berberis and Line of David complete the field. Uh Oh Bango could present the biggest outside challenge after running 4^th in the Rebel and finishing second by a neck to

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Rule in the Boyd Gaming Delta Downs Jackpot (gr. 3) in December. This will be his second start of the year and he looks like the kind of colt that is slowly but surely improving. Northern Giant last finished second to Dean’s Kitten in the Lane’s End Stakes (gr. 3). Line of David is an intriguing entry for trainer John Sadler.  He enters off a 4 ½ length allowance victory.

I think Noble’s Promise will break through with a well-deserved victory here and finally step out from the enormous shadow cast by Lookin At Lucky. Super Saver will probably be very sharp off his third place Tampa Bay Derby win but I like Dublin for second.

The $750,000 Bluegrass Stakes (gr.1) is probably the most intriguing Derby

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prep this weekend and also the toughest one to handicap. A field of 9 gifted runners were entered with Florida Derby second place finisher Pleasant Prince installed as the 3-1 favorite. Pleasant Prince has finished behind Ice Box in his last three starts and looks to earn enough graded stakes money in the Bluegrass to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. While Pleasant Prince is certainly talented and has plenty of ability, I do not believe he is the best horse in the field.

Odysseus comes into the Bluegrass Stakes riding a hot three race win streak which includes one of the year’s most impressive Derby prep victories. In the Tampa Bay Derby last out Odysseus turned certain defeat at the top of the stretch into resounding victory by re-rallying after being passed in the stretch to win by a thrilling nose over Schoolyard Dreams. While Schoolyard Dreams did not flatter his form in the Wood Memorial last weekend, I still believe this is one of the best colts of the year and he will find a way to win this race. He is still very inexperienced and green but his talent shines through every time he steps onto the track. This will be his first start on polytrack.

Interactif enters the Bluegrass as the stronger half of a Todd Pletcher entered duo with Aikenite. Interactif has lost his only two races this year by a mere

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nose in his 2010 debut and a fast closing second by a half length to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (gr.2). Aikenite last finished third to leading Kentucky Derby contender Eskendereya in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes (gr.2) and will be looking for a breakthrough performance here. A win, second or third place finish would assure Aikenite a starting position in the Derby with his earnings already standing at $218,000.

First Dude, Paddy O’Prado, Make Music for Me, Codoy and Stately Victor round out the field.

Odysseus seems like the kind of colt that anything could conceivably be possible with and so far he has won on sheer talent alone. If he can put all his immaturity issues behind him in the Bluegrass he should win this going away. Interactif, Aikenite and Pleasant Prince are hard to separate for me. If there is a good strong pace up front, Pleasant Prince and Aikenite will benefit the most but Interactif is more consistent and competitive in top tier races than either one. First Dude and Codoy are also intriguing entries but looked a little out-classed at this point.

Aside from the big three races this weekend there are a bunch of high-class runners competing across the nation in graded stakes races, the most obvious of these is the return of Informed Decision in the Vinery Madison (gr.1) today and the return of Forever Together in the Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr.2) on Saturday. Enjoy the races. Go Zenyatta!

An American Lion, a Warrior and a Blind Filly

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If Blind Luck is looking to win an Eclipse Award for outstanding 3 year old filly, she is doing a fine job of making a very strong case. In yet another powerful come-from-behind performance, Blind Luck ran past her foes in the Fantasy Stakes on Friday enroot to a commanding 2 ¼ length victory. Jockey Calvin Borel on Tidal Pool took the lead right from the get-go, posting reasonable fractions of :24.19 for the opening quarter mile and :47.88 for the half. She began to pick up the tempo as the field approached the far turn with Blind Luck beginning to move up from last. Into the homestretch Tidal Pool had improved her advantage and was beginning to open up on the field. Blind Luck appeared to be in trouble coming off the turn, but she gradually extended her lead down the lane and easily drew even with Tidal Pool. Looking the part of a champion, she flew to the wire in the fine time of 1:42.56. She will be the undisputed favorite come post time in the Kentucky Oaks now.

American Lion is back and about time too. I thought this guy had been hung out to dry for good but he proved me very wrong in a classy front-running victory Saturday. Front start to finish, the Illinois Derby was all about American Lion.

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Breaking sharply from the gate American Lion coasted through easy fractions down the backstretch and into the final turn. Ywanna Twist moved up rounding the turn to make his bid for the lead a neck behind American Lion and pulling strongly. Off the turn those two hooked up neck and neck and it appeared the victor might very well be decided in a photo finish. American Lion however found another reserve of energy and slowly inched away from Ywanna Twist, crossing the wire a comfortable 2 ¾ lengths in front. Backtalk finished more than 11 lengths behind Ywanna Twist in third. This was American Lion’s first start on dirt and a drastic improvement on his two prior performances this year in which he finished 3^rd and 4^th. This win most certainly punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Warrior’s Reward and Musket Man put on a fantastic show in the Carter Handicap (gr.1) Saturday, making sure nobody

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forgot about the older horse division with all the excitement centered around the 3-year-old Kentucky Derby preps. From last place down the backstretch, Warrior’s Reward came off the turn behind a hard-charging Musket Man. Down the stretch they flew with Warrior’s Reward creeping up to be on even terms with Musket Man. Both jockeys set their horses down for the run to the wire and they gave their all. Musket Man on the inside looked to hold a slight advantage midway down the stretch, but Warrior’s Reward continued to inch forward and seized the first graded stakes win of his career by the bob of a head. Munnings was sent off as the favorite but failed once again to win his elusive grade 1 race, finishing 4 ½ lengths behind Musket Man in third.

Eightyfiveinafifty looks like he’s going to make a superb sprinter or miler, whichever way his connections decide to go with him. In his return to the races on Saturday, Eightfiveinafifty led almost the entire way in the seven furlong Bay

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Shore Stakes (gr.3) to win by 2 ½ lengths in his first graded stakes win. He burst away from the gate to take the lead and then it appeared his curiosity got the better of him as he turned his head completely sideways to gaze at the infield. Jockey Ramon Dominguez managed to get him focused back on the task at hand and he quickly re-seized the lead. It appeared to be an easy win for the speedy young colt and promises good things to come. He finished the race in the splendid time of 1:21.89.

No Such Thing As Luck

Well the preps have been run and the results are in. One favorite continues his towering journey of greatness to the Kentucky Derby while another continues to plow courageously through increasingly horrible trips and still prove he is the real deal.

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Eskendereya does not kid around. When he runs against good horses, he runs them into the ground and then takes off to do his real running from there. Anyone watching the live coverage of the Wood Memorial could see that Eskendereya was a breathtaking specimen of strength, presence and calm in the paddock and during the post parade. He looked the part of a winner and in this case, looks meant everything. After breaking sharply along with Most Happy Fella and Jackson Bend, he settled nicely for jockey John Velazquez behind those two into the backstretch. Gotham Stakes winner Awesome Act ran at the rear of the 6 horse field and began to move up as they came out of the backstretch. Into the final turn Eskendereya moved up eagerly with no encouragement from Valezquez and gradually took the lead with Jackson Bend right at his neck. From the rear Awesome Act flew up to be just behind the front three. Swinging into the turn, Eskenereya proceeded with the utmost ease to make a mockery of one of the finest fields assembled this year in a Derby prep. He opened up by 3 lengths, then 5, Valezques still sitting as cool as a cucumber, throwing the occasional glance back to see if there was anyone coming. There wasn’t. At the wire he finished more than 9 lengths ahead of second place finisher Jackson Bend while appearing completely at ease. There is no doubt that this horse still has a full tank, leaving plenty for the Kentucky Derby. The scary thing is that he seems to still be improving if that is possible.

Mention must be made of Jackson Bend here who earned a berth in the Kentucky Derby with his gritty second place finish. I was initially rooting for him to win the Wood, but it was impossible to be disappointed with the results. Eskendereya was stunning in victory and Jackson Bend deserves a lot of respect off his 3^rd consecutive 2^nd place finish. He certainly proved to me that he can get the distance. There have only been 2 horses that ever beat this colt; Eskendereya and Winslow Homer.

Is it just me, or has Lookin At Lucky been handed a lousy deck of cards this year. First off he comes out on top in the Rebel after what has to be one of the worst trips for a Kentucky Derby contender so far this year. Then he heads back

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home to California to contest the Santa Anita Derby in what should have been an easy tune up prior to his run in the Kentucky Derby. Not only was it the worst trip I have seen this entire year, it is one of the worst trips I have ever seen a young colt go through, regardless of the year. At the break Lookin At Lucky broke well and shot right out of the gate. Before he had gone halfway to the first turn, jockey Garrett Gomez took a sharp hold of Lucky and forced him to squeeze back behind Caracortado. Around the first turn Gomez finally stopped fighting him and proceeded to guide him into the worst possible spot he could find. Down on the inside in third behind Who’s Up and eventual winner and pacesetter Sidney’s Candy. Into the far turn the entire field began to close quickly and Lookin At Lucky became completely boxed in with nowhere to go. Then to make matters worse, Victor Espinoza on Who’s Up drove his mount right into Lookin At Lucky, forcing him hard into the rail. Lookin At Lucky immediately lost all momentum he had begun to gain and dropped back to 7^th as the field entered the home stretch. In front Sidney’s Candy was opening up on the field and

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charging hard for the wire. Lookin At Lucky amazingly gathered himself together again, reaccelerated and drove through an opening on the inside rail with determination. He was closing relentlessly when Sidney’s Candy hit the wire, but it wasn’t enough. He took third behind a fast-closing Setsuko. Lookin At Lucky’s “bump” from Who’s Up was so bad that jockey Paul Atkinson on Caracortado, traveling just behind Lookin At Lucky, said he thought Lucky was going to fall. The incident also ruined any chance Caracortado had of winning the race as he had to be pulled up sharply when Lookin At Lucky got bumped. Bob Baffert, trainer of Lookin At Lucky was very upset at the ride Gomez gave his colt and isn’t sure whether or not he will replace him for the Derby. Sidney’s Candy was terrific in winning after overcoming a slight stumble at the start. The second favorite led from gate-to-wire while finishing 4 ½ lengths clear of the field. My final word on the Santa Anita Derby is this: the best horse lost.

Don’t give up on Lookin At Lucky just yet. There was no possible way anyone could have expected him to win this race with the trip he received. Trainer Bob Baffert will be doing his utmost to have him in better condition than any other horse on the planet come Derby day, you can bet on that. I still believe he is the best 3 year old in the nation.

A little bit of Luck, Backtalk and Wood

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This weekend is beyond a doubt all about the nation’s best three-year-olds with a trio of important Kentucky Derby preps laden with talented youngsters each slated to be run. One of the main attractions, and the single race that will be generating the most interest, is the Wood Memorial (gr.1). With a field of six highly touted and equally talented colts entered in the Wood, it would seem strange to say that one colt will no doubt go off a heavy favorite. When you’re talking about Eskendereya though, there’s not much strange about him. After starting the year off with a jovial gate-to-wire allowance triumph, Eskendereya set the bar excruciatingly high when taking the Fountain of Youth Stakes in an 8 ½ length romp, earning a 106 speed figure, the highest Beyer for any three-year-old so far this year. The Fountain of Youth continues to be the most dominant Derby prep display of the year, thus Eskendereya’s lofty favoritism not only for the Wood Memorial but also for the Kentucky Derby.

Impressive Gotham Stakes (gr.3) winner and European invader Awesome Act looks to have the best chance of taking down the heavy favorite by most accounts. His Gotham victory was deceptively easy and although the horses he defeated in the Gotham were not the top tier of the Derby trail, it was the way in which he won that warrants respect. His huge strides propelled him from fourth at the top of the stretch, to first in a matter of seconds and with red-hot jockey Julien Leparoux aboard once again, you know he’ll have as good a chance as any other contender at a favorable trip.

The ever persistent and ultra-consistent Jackson Bend is back for another crack at Eskendereya after finishing a distant second to him in the Fountain of Youth. Although he has never finished worse than second and the only two

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losses of his entire career have come against high-class colts, people still doubt that this Nick Zito trainee can get the distance with his sprint based pedigree. If there is one thing that I have learned from observing the Triple Crown races it is this; Nick Zito is a master at taking down the giants when everyone least expects it. He always lets the public know that a win is not absolutely necessary, that a prep is just what it sounds like; a race to prepare the colt for the big dance. While no one would deny that the Wood Memorial is a big dance, it is not the Kentucky Derby, and that is the ultimate goal for Jackson Bend at this point. I wouldn’t be half surprised to see Jackson Bend pull off a shocker in the Wood and I would be shocked if he didn’t finish in the top three. Calvin Borel gets the mount on Jackson Bend in the Wood.

Schoolyard Dreams looks like the fastest improving colt in the field. After his heartbreaking loss to Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby by the shortest nose in the history of the race, his connections decided to give him another shot in hopes of making it into the Derby field. He is another who seems unlikely to finish out of the top three and if he does, his entry in the Kentucky Derby could be in jeopardy.

Now, for the sake of safety I am going to mention the last two entries in the field because last week when I was making all my “esteemed” proclamations about who was going to win on everyone else’s blogs, I didn’t once mention any long shots and got fried for it when the likes of Dean’s Kitten, Mission Impazzible and Endorsement ran their way to glory. Carnivore and Most Happy Fella round out the Wood Memorial field. Carnivore last won a maiden race by an impressive 7 lengths and Most Happy Fella last took down an optional claimer field. It seems doubtful either one can crack the entry of the “big four”, but anything is possible. Eskendereya seems to be the invincible one here and while Awesome Act has garnered a good amount of support, I tend to like Jackson Bend and Schoolyard Dreams behind Eskendereya for the top three finish.

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Well, we didn’t have long to wait for the return of Champion 2 year old Male Lookin At Lucky. After his incredible Rebel Stakes victory, Bob Baffert is sending Lookin At Lucky right back into the fray when he takes on 9 other contenders in the Santa Anita Derby (gr.1) this weekend. With the dirt question behind him and unarguably answered, Lucky can rest comfortably on his laurels in the Santa Anita Derby and hopefully produce yet another scintillating victory. He will be the overwhelming favorite when post time comes around and rightly so.

Previously undefeated California sensation Caracortado is back after an uncharacteristic third place finish in the San Felipe Stakes. If the pace is a little stronger than it was in the San Felipe Caracortado should be able to launch a much stronger rally in the stretch of the Santa Anita Derby and improve his chances at Kentucky Derby glory.

San Felipe victor Sidney’s Candy is also looking to stake his claim here and a win would most assuredly vault him to the top of many Derby watch lists. His front-running style has so far worked beautifully, but I have a feeling it won’t be enough to hold off the hungry pack this time.

Surprise Sham Stakes (gr.3) winner, Alphies Bet, is also entered. His shocking upset victory in the Sham looked like the real deal and judging by the fact that he previously won his maiden on the turf in the beginning of the year he seems to love synthetics. The Santa Anita Derby is the same distance as the Sham and he drew the farthest outside post for the Derby just like he did for the Sham. It remains to be seen whether or not the scenario changes from there.

The rest of the field is, suffice it to say, a group of long-shots who are led by Cardiff Giant and Skipshot. Cardiff Giant

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has been beating a pattern of ever decreasing production this year in his races. He finished second in the San Rafael (gr.3), third in the Southwest (gr.3) and fifth in the Rebel last out. Skipshot took a five horse allowance field by a nose last out and has since posted a fantastic bullet 5 furlong work in :58 2/5 for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.  Another horse to keep an eye on is Setsuko, the second place finisher in the Sham Stakes behind Alphie’s Bet.

The Santa Anita Derby looks like just another Lookin At Lucky party to me, but horse races are never sure things. If the word of trainer Bob Baffert is anything to go by though, we should see a much sharper, stronger and energetic Lookin At Lucky this weekend. Imagine that.

The $500,000 Illinois Derby (gr.3) heralds the return of one of my favorite horses from last year’s two year old crop. Backtalk made a victorious return to the races this year after failing to place in his last two races of 2009, the Hopeful

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Stakes and Breeders’ Futurity. The talented son of Smarty Jones will be looking to prove that he has a legitimate shot at emulating his immortal sire’s feat of winning the Kentucky Derby, but first, he has to win the Illinois Derby which is no small feat. The 9 furlong distance of the Illinois Derby will be the farthest Backtalk has traveled to date, but with a trio of good works behind him, I believe the striking Smarty Jones colt is up to the task. His last work at six furlongs came in an astounding time of 1:09.60.

American Lion makes his return to the races here in an attempt to remove some of the considerable tarnish that has gathered on his sleek coat. After starting the year off in the top ten of most every Derby watch list, the son of Tiznow has fallen out of the top tier after posting two dull efforts in California. He switches to dirt in the Illinois Derby for the first time, and some think it could prove to be a turning point for American Lion. If he shows an affinity for dirt here, it will most likely assure him a trip to the Kentucky Derby.

Dave in Dixie also returns to action in the Illinois Derby after a very poor showing on synthetics in the San Felipe. He has showed glimpses of brilliance this year with incredible late kicks in mid-stretch during his races that could prove to be very deadly at longer distances. This race is make it, or break it for the John Sadler trainee.

Two other significant contenders are Gotham second place finisher Yawanna Twist, and Turf Melody. To cover myself yet again I’ll just say this field also has a good amount of long-shots and leave it at that. Now if they win I can come back and say that I mentioned the longshots.

Backtalk was “the horse” for the Kentucky Derby earlier last year after going undefeated through the Bashford Manor (gr.3) and Sanford Stakes (gr.2). The question now is this: Is he really back, or is it all just talk?

The Fantasy Stakes will forever be remembered as the first race in which Rachel Alexandra’s true talent was recognized by the majority of racing fans. This year the cast for the Fantasy is a little more slim, but perhaps no less

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filled with talented and potential-laden fillies. Blind Luck turns in her final performance here before an expected start in the Kentucky Oaks and looks to bounce back from a surprising defeat last out. This filly is as tough as they come and should take this race with ease.

All Due Respect, Tidal Pool and No Such Word are the only three fillies entered against Blind Luck and of the three No Such Word looks like the biggest threat. She was last seen winning the Honeybee Stakes (gr.3) at Oaklawn. She is trained by Cindy Jones, wife of Larry Jones.

All Due Respect placed third in the Pocahontas Stakes (gr.3) last year before breaking her maiden in her fifth attempt.

Tidal Pool looks like the wild card option here. She sports a record of 3 wins, 1 second and 1 third in 9 lifetimes starts. She blew away an allowance field by 8 lengths at Oaklawn this year and is trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

Aside from all the great 3 year old races lining up this weekend, the older horses are also preparing to put on a show. The one you won’t want to miss is the showdown between Munnings and Musket Man in the Carter Handicap. Let the races begin. In closing I want to thank everyone for being so supportive of me when I was "out of contact" last weekend, it meant a lot.[polldaddy poll=2994406]