[/caption]I decided to post my Derby Dozen selections for the first time since the beginning of the year. The plan was to keep one going throughout the year until Steve from Wire Players invited me to participate in their collaborative Derby Dozen, so I dropped my own personal dozen. Now with all the reshuffling going on the earnings list Jackson Bend enters the field due to the defections of horses like Eskendereya and Rule. I am a huge fan of Jackson Bend and was very pleased to see that he will get a well deserved chance to make a run for the roses. Pletchers filly Devil May Care is now a definite Derby starter and Interactif is, according to Pletcher, very doubtful to enter the race. If Interactif does drop out of contention that opens up one more spot for a horse like Backtalk to fill in. Noble’s Promise as expected, is now confirmed for the Kentucky Derby after showing trainer Kenny McPeek that he is in top physical form. So here, after only a 3 month break is my final Derby Dozen.
1) Lookin At Lucky-Finally regains his well-deserved title of favorite. Baffert seems to have helped him rediscover his luck at Churchill Downs, now he just needs to hold onto it until Saturday evening.
2) Noble’s Promise-Earned his way in through his excellent works and appears ready to finish “lookin” At Lukcy’s butt again.
3) Jackson Bend-The bridesmaid of the year finally gets into the Derby after a slew of defections. He may be the easiest choice to fill out your exacta wager you’ll ever make.
4) Sidney’s Candy-Made a sweet statement with his first Churchill Downs workout. His staying speed could be compromised by so many other speed horses running, but he looks very ratable.
5) Ice Box-This guy is as cool as a cucumber and has been working very crisply for his run for the roses. His running style is the absolute perfect style to have this year and his record indicates he is quickly improving.
6) Dublin-The luck of the Irish could still come his way, so long as it’s not too busy blessing Lookin At Lucky. His 2010 performances, while not victories were still good efforts and he only lost the Arkansas Derby by less than a length, Lukas will have him ready to run his best race you can be sure.
7) Paddy O’Prado-Looks like one of the best live long-shots in the Derby field at this point. Churchill Downs appears to be treating him very well and he owns one of the best Kentucky Derby works to date.
8) Devil May Care-I’m not sure if the Devil Care’s that she runs in the Derby or not, but I’m sure the boys care and the girls are probably very happy to see her leave the Oaks field.
9) Endorsement-If he wins this one Shannon Ritter becomes the first female trainer to ever win the Derby, in 2009 that would have practically been a “lock”, not so sure it happens in 2010.
10) Stately Victor-His Bluegrass was a better race than most people think and he looked fantastic galloping out after the win.
11) Awesome Act-Could be the forgotten horse coming into the Derby off his un-awesome third place Wood Memorial finish. He probably won’t win but he might be good enough for 4th or even 3rd.
12) Conveyance-Bob Baffert knows how to get a horse to the Derby better than anyone, so don’t leave him off you tickets just because he looks like the “speed” that will break coming off the backstretch. He is another one who is working beautifully over Churchill Down’s dirt surface.
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Interesting and thoughtful insights......... Michael Check out my blog
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Excellent write up - I'm so jealous that you get to go this year! We expect pictures - and LOTS of them! :-)
ReplyDeleteThanks Kevin! You can bet on the pictures, I'm bringing one of my brothers nice digital camera's so there's no excuses! I can't wait to see Rachel Alexandra and Lookin At Lucky.
ReplyDeleteThanks Michael,
ReplyDeleteI checked out your blog too, it was very good. I especially liked your analysis of Jackson Bend. That colt is vastly underrated.
I usually take a stand against horses with changes in training or injuries and for this reason I am wavering on Endorsement and the minor infection that Noble Promise had, as well as traffic troubles in much smaller Arkansas Derby field bothers me. You've read how I've changed my mind on both Sidney's Candy and Dublin - my hardest cut. Awesome Act I believe is just overrated. The rest I am in agreement in on and will include in some way in my Derby bets with the addition of Super Saver, who as Mike Welsch says, looks to be sitting on a big race. Mission Impazible has become more intriguing to me, as well...Have fun at Churchill...
ReplyDeleteNice rundown, Brian! But where's Satsuko (or however you spell his name) on your list? He just got in, along with Devil May Care. He's trained by Richard Mandella, is coming off synthetic to dirt, sired by Pleasantly Perfect who loved to go a mile-and-a-quarter, and is owned by the same people who own Goldikova. Those things all lined up like stars in the sky for me! Satsuko has two fast-closing seconds at shorter distances. He's ready to go the distance!
ReplyDeleteHi Tony,
ReplyDeleteI'm not so sure about Endorsement anymore, only because they haven't given him a good strong work yet at Churchill Downs. It just been gallops. I agree on Awesome Act, and actually think I should have put him behind Conveyance on my list now that he's had two very good works. Super Saver has been getting a fair amount of hype recently so I'm going to have to take another look at him.
Thank you, I'm sure I will enjoy my Derby/Oaks experience!
Thanks Fran,
ReplyDeleteSetsuko? I'm not sure he got in yet. I believe he still stands at #24, behind Make Music For Me #21, Pleasant Prince #22 and A Little Warm #23. If he is in and I haven't heard of it then he would certainly be on my list.
I agree, he looks like a horse that would relish the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby.
So sorry! My mistake! I thought he was in. He should be! I'll keep my fingers crossed! I was sent a pic of him training with a Derby saddlecloth on yesterday and I just assumed he was in...I need to do my homework...
ReplyDeleteYes, he certainly deserves to take a shot at the Derby. I got fooled by the same thing early last week when I saw Jackson Bend (before he got in) training with a Derby saddlecloth on. :)
ReplyDeleteThis is such an evenly matched field that one may be better off just drawing a name from a hat. I'm so glad JB is in, he deserves a shot at the Derby as much or more than the others. The Derby Draws will determine my final picks but as of now I really like LaL, Dublin, and Devil May Care. I was torn between SS and the filly, but the Devil is a brilliant horse. JB would be one of my longshots along with Endorsement and Conveyance.
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