Here Comes the Belmont

It’s been a long time since I last posted here, but I’m finally back and ready to talk about the 2013 Belmont Stakes and more. This year has had its fair share of excitement this year and the prospect of Champions like Wise Dan and Royal Delta racing throughout the remainder of the year is exhilarating to say the least.

The 2013 Triple Crown season has given rise to two of the most thrilling and feel-good themes in decades. There seems to be redemption around every corner this year, from Orb becoming the first Kentucky Derby winner for beloved veteran trainer Shug McGaughey to the great Gary Stevens winning the Preakness aboard Oxbow just months into his comeback year. To sum up; this season has been the stuff of legend and fairy tales. Once again there will be no Triple Crown winner, which means fans have now endured a 35 year drought, but the initial disappointment can’t diminish the achievements and luster of how special the 2013 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes victories have been.

Now the attention has shifted to the 145th running of the Belmont Stakes; the Test of Champions. As with each running the foremost question surrounding each contender regards their ability to handle the 1 ½ mile distance and in most cases it’s the breeding that many turn to. This year’s edition seems to carry plenty of stamina in the family trees so I think the winning factors will come down to talent, class and experience.

The level of excitement that accompanies the running of the Belmont Stakes usually hinges on just two questions: Is there a horse with a shot at winning the Triple Crown? If not; Will there be a rematch between the Kentucky Derby winner and the Preakness winner? Fortunately for us racing fans we are almost assured a rematch between Orb and Oxbow this year. If that’s not enough to get you excited, try the return of the 2nd and 3rd place Derby runners as well as the 3rd place finisher in the Kentucky Oaks, add to that list a son of Curlin who set some of the fastest fractions in Derby history for the first ¾ of a mile as well as Overanalyze, Vyjack and about six others and you’ve got a field worthy of Grade 1 Classic status. The prospect of a filly running in an American classic is always a popular draw among fans and with Unlimited Budget and Rosie Napravnik confirmed to run there will be great appeal.

My sentimental favorite for the Belmont is Palace Malice. Anyone who knows me knows I’m just about the biggest Curlin fan in the world. I have Curlin mugs, hats, shirts, autographed pictures...the works. To see a son of Curlin running in the Classics this year has been thrilling to say the least. I wasn’t particularly thrilled with Mike Smith’s ride on Palace Malice in the Kentucky Derby, but that’s all in the past and it’s way easier to sit on the couch and yell instructions at the jockey thinking that they should have done this or that, but the actual race is riddled with unexpected factors that sometimes can’t be controlled. That being said I don’t know if Palace Malice is good enough to win the Belmont, but he shouldn’t have an issue with the distance if he’s anything like Curlin and I’d bet anything he’s in the best shape of his life after running those crazy fractions in the Derby, plus he’s posted three nice works at Belmont since the Derby. Another thing I like about him is the fact that the blinkers come off in the Belmont, like they should have been in the Derby.

Now on to the non-sentimental favorites. I still think Orb is at the top of this class for now, despite his inexplicably dull 4th place finish in the Preakness. He just didn’t seem to be himself at all on Preakness day. He looked spectacular in the paddock and post parade and had a great position down the backstretch, but just didn’t have that aggressive punch this time that usually carries him to the front. Trainer Shug McGaughey doesn’t appear too concerned that Orb will duplicate his Preakness performance in the Belmont and neither am I. He still looks like the class of the field to me right now.

Of the contenders most likely to win the Belmont other than Orb it looks like Revolutionary, Overanalyze, Oxbow, Frac Daddy, Unlimited Budget, Vyjavk and Golden Soul are the most logical candidates. Oxbow has proven to be very versatile with his running style and with the very experienced and savvy Gary Stevens scheduled to ride again I think he has a great chance to register another strong performance. For me though I won’t be picking him as a win candidate unless he looks exceptional during the warm-up.

Revolutionary is a horse after my own heart. It doesn’t seem to matter what gets thrown at this horse, he still manages to find his way into the winners circle or the top three. He dealt with terrible traffic woes in the Derby and still finished a strong 3rd so I’m betting he’ll be right in the thick of things at the Belmont finish and I’m also really curious to see what would happen if both he and Orb bring their best races to the table and get clear running room.

Overanalyze has won the Arkansas Derby, Remsen and Futurity Stakes so we know he’s very classy, but his 11th place finish in the Derby was less than stellar. Perhaps it was the sloppy track or the traffic, but either way I’m inclined to think he has what it takes to compete with the Belmont field. He already defeated Oxbow and Frac Daddy so if he likes the 1 ½ miles we could be in for a year with 3 separate Classic winners. Vyjack seems to be a very good horse, but I think he might be just a little bit behind the likes of Orb and Oxbow.

Unlimited Budget is an exciting Belmont contender not just because she’s a filly with the nation’s hottest female jockey slated to ride her, but because she’s very, very good. I was a little bit disappointed with her performance in the Kentucky Oaks though. From a visual standpoint she didn’t make up a whole lot of ground in the home stretch and it’s going to be a whole lot longer in the Belmont homestretch. For me I’m not sure she’s ready to beat the top boys, but she’s definitely coming into this race in tiptop shape as her bullet :47.55 breeze at Belmont Sunday proves. It will be the first time since Rags to Riches won the Belmont over Curlin in 2007 that a filly enters the Belmont Stakes starting gate.

Golden Soul is a very questionable contender for me. Trainer Dallas Stewart kept the Perfect Soul colt out of the Preakness Stakes after the colt’s runner-up effort in the Derby left him more worn-out than expected. He returned to post a strong 1:00.40 five furlong work at Churchill Downs last Thursday, but I think he’s a toss for me. Frac Daddy is training very well, but I don’t think he’s ready to beat the likes of Orb, Revolutionary or Oxbow right now.

In just five days a new Belmont Stakes champion will be crowned. Will Orb or Oxbow add a second Classic trophy to their mantle or will history be made by the performance of another talented runner? I eagerly await the results.
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