Friday, March 12, 2010

Super Lookin Scar Face: The Rebel, San Felipe & Tampa Bay Derby

[caption id="attachment_497" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Lookin At Lucky"][/caption]

Last year one colt held the uncontested lead in the juvenile male division. After posting a record of 5 wins in 6 starts with his only loss coming by a mere head in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, this colt literally ran away with the divisional championship and took a solid lead as the favorite for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. Lookin At Lucky has slowly been losing some esteem it seems since his victory in the CashCall Futurity and subsequent long rest before returning to the work tab. It is as if people think his time away from the races has somehow allowed a little rust to spread on his shiny coat. Some of it could be the fact that he enters into his 2010 debut in about as difficult a prep race as is possible. Or it could be the fact that super-charged Kentucky Derby contenders have quickly been cropping up left and right throwing talent around more loosely than a ping-pong ball in a tournament and taking some of the attention away from the reigning champ.
The Rebel Stakes (gr.2) at Oaklawn Park is loaded with talent this year and leading the field is 2 Year Old Champion Lookin At Lucky. But for a troubled trip, an unlucky post and the distance of a nose this brilliant son of Smart Strike would be undefeated. Trainer Bob Baffert may know how to train a horse for the Kentucky Derby better than any other man alive and he has handled Lookin At Lucky’s career flawlessly so far. The 3-year-old colt faces a few new challenges this time around. The Rebel will be his first start on dirt, first time shipping and first time wearing blinkers. This is his race to lose but it will be no cakewalk. Entered against him are grade 1 winners Noble’s Promise and Dublin.
Noble’s Promise will be hoping for a different view than his last few races this

[caption id="attachment_498" align="alignright" width="298" caption="Noble's Promise"][/caption]

time around. In his last two starts there have only been two different horses between him and victory. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile he was nosed out of second place money by Lookin At Lucky and then was defeated by ¾ of a length by that one in the CashCall Futurity last out. This will also be his first start on dirt but his breeding suggests that it should not be a problem. He has been working his shoes off at Gulfstream Park and appears primed for a big effort.
Dublin carries the hopes of trainer D. Wayne Lukas into the Rebel as his best Kentucky Derby prospect in years. The venerable trainer, who trained such greats as Winning Colors to victory in the Kentucky Derby 1988, trained

[caption id="attachment_499" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Dublin"][/caption]

Dublin to a Grade 1 victory last year before two consecutive unplaced efforts to close out his juvenile season. After having surgery to correct an entrapped epiglottis Dublin came back on February 20th to finish a strong closing second in the Southwest Stakes behind undefeated Conveyance. Lukas believes he will run a much improved race in the Rebel off his Southwest performance.
Uh Oh Bango and Cardiff Giant help complete the field. Cardiff Giant finished 3rd in the Southwest to Conveyance and Dublin last out, while Uh Oh Bango finished runner-up to Rule in the Delta Jackpot (gr.3).
 


[caption id="attachment_501" align="alignright" width="210" caption="Caracortado"][/caption]

The San Felipe Stakes

(gr.2) is even more full of talent than the Rebel Stakes which is hard to believe considering the Rebel line-up. Undefeated Caracortado, who’s name in Spanish means Scar Face, heads the field as the favorite off his impressive victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr.2). The California-bred gelding burst onto the scene by defeating highly-touted American Lion and Tiz Chrome in a ridiculously easy performance during the Lewis. A big strapping 3-year-old trained by little-known Michael Machowsky and ridden by small time jockey Paul Atkinson, Caracortado has won all five of his lifetime races with ease and authority that demand respect. He is the big cheese this time around and looks like he deserves the favoritism awarded him.
American Lion returns for a second crack at Caracortado after his

[caption id="attachment_502" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="American Lion"][/caption]

seemingly dull 3rd place effort in the Lewis. Winner of the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, American Lion must improve off his last effort in order to prove he belongs in the Kentucky Derby gate.
Robert B. Lewis Stakes second place finisher Dave in Dixie also returns for another try against Caracortado here. In the Lewis Stakes his delayed late closing kick caught the eye of more than a few people and many more will be watching him this time around. If he can improve off his last effort, this race could very well end up being his party. There will be plenty of pace for him to close into with the entry of front-running Sidney’s Candy, so his running style will be perfectly suited here.
San Vicente victor Sidney’s Candy takes a major step-up in class in the San Felipe. He won the San Vicente by more than 4 lengths after leading gate-to-wire in his last start. Jockey Joe Talamo retains the mount.
From the ultra-talented stable of trainer Todd Pletcher comes the turf running Interactif. The two time grade 3 winner makes his first start on

[caption id="attachment_503" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Interactif"][/caption]

synthetics in the San Felipe. He enters off a second place finish as the favorite in the Hallandale Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park after being out-finished to the line by a nose. Grass form translates well in many instances to synthetics so if Interactif can reproduce his winning grass form in the Sal Felipe he stands a good chance.
Caracortado, Dave in Dixie, American Lion, Sidney’s Candy and Interactif all entering the gate together, this is no doubt one of the deepest Derby preps in recent memory.

The Tampa Bay Derby (gr.3) is yet another seemingly talented field.

[caption id="attachment_505" align="alignleft" width="298" caption="Super Saver"][/caption]

Super Saver makes his highly-anticipated 3-year-old debut for Todd Pletcher and WinStar Farms. After his impressive five length wire-to-wire Kentucky Jockey Club victory last year, he has retained a good position on most Derby watch lists. His works leading up to the Tampa Bay Derby have been exceptional and trainer Todd Pletcher thinks he is ready to run a big effort here without peaking.
Uptowncharlybrown finished 3rd in the Sam Davis Stakes behind 2nd place finisher Schoolyard Dreams. Both look to improve their game this time around and need to if they hope to progress on toward the Kentucky Derby.
The horse many people will have their eyes on Saturday will be once-defeated Odysseus, the incredibly talented allowance winner who blew his last race open by 15 lengths. This will be his stakes debut and judging by the way he handily defeated his competitors last out, a stakes race is right up his alley. I think he could be the wild card here and might very well take the field.

This weekend is the kind of weekend most of us racing enthusiasts sit around dreaming about for half the year. Aside from the unbelievable line-up of races like the Rebel, San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, New Orleans Ladies Stakes and Santa Margarita, the Gulfstream Park Handicap with Cool Coal Man, Harlem Rocker and Grasshopper is also slated to be run. On top of that, 3-year-old filly Bickerson’s is running in the Cicada Stakes at Aqueduct and Champion Two Year Old Filly She Be Wild attempts to return to her winning ways in Florida. Enjoy watching the races and good luck to everyone with all your picks and favorites.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Rachel and Zenyatta: Racing Against Themselves

So many things in horse racing seem unsure and fragile. The economy, auctions, purses, revenue, race dates, attendance, weather and race outcome are all inhabited by the fact that nothing in this sport is a sure thing. At least, that’s what everyone thought until 2009 came along, until Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. Until nothing seemed to matter or make a difference except winning and winning big. If racing achievements were measured by feet and inches, Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta would be about 2,000 ft. above the Empire State Building. Everyone knows what these two phenomenal females have accomplished in their careers and especially in 2009. What now begins is a new chapter, one that starts, and hopefully ends, in triumph and satisfaction.

[caption id="attachment_487" align="alignleft" width="298" caption="Zenyatta winning the 2008 Apple Blossom"][/caption]

Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta are both slated to run their 2010 debut races this Saturday and though they enter the gate thousands of miles apart, they will ultimately be facing each other. Everything these two great athletes do from now on will forever be linked with the other. From the moment they step into the walking ring on Saturday, to the very second they arrive at Oaklawn Park to contest the April 9th Apple Blossom Handicap all eyes will be trained on Rachel and Zenyatta. The Apple Blossom Handicap has been accepted, though not formally, by both parties as the race in which the two super-stars will finally meet in what promises to be one of the most epic battles in history.

Rachel Alexandra, 2009 Horse of the Year and Champion Three Year Old Filly, makes her 2010 debut at Fair Grounds in the

[caption id="attachment_488" align="alignright" width="298" caption="Rachel Alexandra in her most recent work"][/caption]

$200,000 New Orleans ladies Stakes, a race pretty much tailor-made for her by the track in the hopes of luring her to stay at Fair Grounds for her debut. Having last raced six months ago when becoming the first filly in history to win the historic Woodward Stakes (gr.1), Rachel Alexandra has been cramming in the works in order to be fit for her first race of the season. Since the announcement that she would start in the Apple Blossom, Rachel has been systematically cranking up her exercise routine in order to reach her peak fitness level in time for the race. Trainer Steve Asmussen admitted that the filly is not yet 100% fit but that he is happy with where she is right now in her training. Let’s see, not 100% yet, but the way she made mincemeat of the fillies last year, this should be nothing more than a walk in the park if she is just 70%. Most people will not be concerned with her fitness level. She will no doubt be the overwhelming favorite, and not just at the betting windows. Rachel drew post position number 2, right between the two speed horses in the race, a scenario that suits trainer Steve Asmussen just fine.

Zenyatta enters the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (gr.1) looking better than ever before. The gargantuan

[caption id="attachment_489" align="alignleft" width="298" caption="Zenyatta"][/caption]

mare has been posting some of the best works of her life since December and is as razor-sharp for her 2010 debut as she’s ever been. She has been assigned a 127 pound impost for the Santa Margarita which is substantially higher than the other fillies/mares in the field, but she won with 129 pounds in the Vanity last year, so weight should not be a problem. She will be spotting her possible rivals 8 to 19 pounds which is significant, but nothing seems to have fazed her so far and I doubt this will make a difference.

Both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta will be facing somewhat small fields it appears. Rachel is slated to take on just 4 others in

[caption id="attachment_490" align="alignright" width="298" caption="Rachel Alexandra"][/caption]

the New Orleans Ladies Stakes, while the final entries for the Santa Margarita have not yet been finalized. However the fields appear on race day one thing is sure; Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta will make headlines, win or lose. I think the general sentiment is that both will win and continue down the war path that eventually ends at Oaklawn Park.

Three major Kentucky Derby preps, the Rebel Stakes, San Felipe Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby, are also going to be run on Saturday. I will post on them in a separate entry later.[polldaddy poll=2824426]

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Rail Runner on Word Press

I am working out some technical issues with Rail Runner here on blogger right now. Please visit Rail Runner over at Word Press for the time being.
Thank you.

http://railrunner.wordpress.com/

Blind Luck and the Big Cap

[caption id="attachment_481" align="alignleft" width="298" caption="Blind Luck"][/caption]

The Santa Anita Oaks headlines the most talented 3-year-old filly in the country this year just like it did in 2009. Last year it was Stardom Bound on a tremendous Grade-1 winning streak entered as the overwhelming favorite, this year Blind Luck steps into that role and looks to prove she can continue her winning ways by dominating the West Coast filly division. Speculation has already been raised as to whether or not the dynamics of the race will get the star filly beat. As a come-from-behind runner Blind Luck depends on a front-running horse to set a good pace for her to run into and so far the Santa Anita Oaks looks like a race deprived of known frontrunners.  A lack of pace in her last start forced Blind Luck to rundown the leader in the homestretch while still winning the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr.1) by a thrilling nose. The feeling here is that she will handle the pace, lack-of or other, just fine and continue her winning streak. The Las Virgenes was her 2010 debut and with that gut-wrencher under her belt she will most likely be sharper in her second outing.

Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta should be proud of what they have been able to accomplish in handing out their multiple thrashings of the boys. Walls are coming down everywhere it seems and the fillies are charging through, unafraid and unconcerned of their male counterparts.

St Trinians leads the latest charge as she attempts to become the first filly history to win the Big Cap. The Santa Anita

[caption id="attachment_482" align="alignright" width="298" caption="St Trinians"][/caption]

Handicap sounds like a tough spot to place a filly but when you consider the alternative, running against Zenyatta one week later, the choice looks much easier. St Trinians last out defeated 2009 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic victor Life Is Sweet in the Santa Maria. She has won all four of her starts in California since shipping over from Europe by more than 16 combined lengths. Set to load in the gate opposite the brilliant filly is a talented line-up of males.

Bob Baffert trainee Misremembered has finished second in the his last three starts. He has been working well up to the race and is improving with time according to jockey Joe Steiner.

Other entries include Grade-1 winner Mast Track plus Jeranimo, Neko Bay, Loup Breton, Marsh Side, Delightful Kiss and Dakota Phone.

The filly gets a significant weight break here because of the sex allowance. St Trinians carries 113 pounds compared to the high-weights Mast Track, Neko Bay, Loup Breton and Marsh Side all weighing in at 117 pounds.

The Gotham Stakes is a handicap chore at its best. The contenders are about as close to inseperable as is possible. The main ingredient is potential here not experience. At first glance Whirlaway Stakes winner Peppi Knows would seem to have the experience edge. The one question here is his ability to rate off the pace, unlike he did in the Whirlaway when going gate-to-wire against a less than stellar field.

Three Day Rush, defeated by 1 ½ lengths in the Whirlaway after being carried wide on the turn by Eightfiveinafifty, returns here for trainer Todd Pletcher to prove he is better than his Whirlaway showing. The fact that he has Pletcher as a trainer makes him “the one” to watch here as Pletcher’s runners have been snatching up practically every Derby prep in sight.

Afleet Again, Wow Wow Wow, Awesome Act and Turf Melody finish out the top choices. Turf Melody was on most Derby watch-lists before his 6th place finish in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds in January.

[caption id="attachment_484" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Tuscan Evening"][/caption]

Tuscan Evening joins the roster of superior fillies willing to put it on-the-line against the boys this weekend when she starts in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap (gr.1) at Santa Anita. She faces a good cast of athletes on the turf here that includes multiple graded stakes winner Battle of Hastings, the unstoppable warrior Awesome Gem, Ever a Friend who won the Kilroe two years back, Fluke who last out took the Citation Handicap (gr.1) and fellow filly Proviso who last out finished second in the Grade-1 Santa Monica Handicap.  Tuscan Evening sports a glittering record of 8 wins from 12 starts for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and looks primed and ready to make that 9 for 13.

Good Luck to all, keep your fingers crossed that the rain avoids Santa Anita and enjoy the racing spectacle this weekend.

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Bickersons Looks To Enhance Her Image

The Davona Dale Stakes (gr.2) hosts a talented and seemingly deep field of three-year-old fillies, all making their early bids for the Kentucky Oaks. With the depth of runners entered, the result could be decided by experience rather than raw talent. Bickersons caught nearly every horseman’s eye last month when she won the Forward Gal Stakes (gr.1) at Gulfstream Park by a scintillating 7 lengths. In her wake she left champion 2-year-old filly and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies victor She Be Wild. The Forward Gal was Bickersons first start of 2010, previously she closed out her two-year-old year by winning the Moccasin Stakes at Hollywood Park in November, then finishing 5th in the Hollywood Starlet (gr.1).


Sassy’s Image won the two premier juvenile filly races at Churchill Downs last year when taking the Pocahantas Stakes (gr.3) and then the Golden Rod Stakes (gr.2) less than a month later in a tease. Trainer Dale Romans had the filly sharpened as tight as a loaded spring for her three-year-old debut at Gulfstream in the Sweetest Chant Stakes and the result was an easy 4 ½ victory in the slop. That makes 3 consecutive stakes Sassy’s Image has been able to string together.

Santa Ynez (gr.2) victor Amen Hallelujah will be making her first start on dirt in the Davona Dale. Trainer Rick Dutrow has had the filly working very well in preparation at Gulfstream. Last year as a juvenile Amen Hallelujah placed second in two grade 1 stakes before finally breaking through with her first stakes victory in the Santa Ynez. She has one the nicest names I’ve ever heard, but whether or not she can handle the dirt and the step up in class remain questionable. If her very consistent synthetic form translates smoothly to dirt, she could end up playing a major role.

Christine Daae rounds out the top four choices in the Davona Dale. Although this filly is lightly raced and just broke her maiden in her last start, the way in which she won has had people buzzing ever since. After stalking the pace throughout the race, the daughter of Giant’s Causeway swept clear in the stretch for an 8 ¾ length victory in a sparkling time of 1:21.67 for seven furlongs. Many people expect her to live up to her name and sing a glorious aria in the Davona Dale while at the same time proving it was no phantom anomaly she uncorked in her last start. Her training up to this race had been phenomenal and hints at a big performance in store.

I’m going to place the proverbial noose around my neck here and state that I do not think she will win here. I think she is very talented and has limitless potential but I believe the combined talent and experience of Bickersons and Sassy’s Image will most likely result in a one-two finish of those two. Bickersons in particular looks like a powerhouse. In her Forward Gal win she was coasting so easy down the stretch that Jockey Joe Bravo had the reins loose on her neck. She literally did it all on her own without breaking a sweat.

The Sham Stakes at Santa Anita has been delayed due to drainage problems yet again.

Don’t forget to watch the veteran runner Precious Passion attempt to retain his victorious crown the in the Mac Diarmida Stakes (gr.2) at Gulfstream Park. He won this event last year and looks to return to his front-running winning ways today.

In other news Backtalk made a successful return to the track in his three-year-old debut Friday at Delta Downs. The son of Smarty Jones won his first two-turn race in the one-mile allowance race. After being bumped early in the race Backtalk stalked in third, swept five wide into the stretch and drove to the wire to win by half a length over front-running Royal Express. This win puts the colt squarely back on the Derby trail after two unplaced efforts in the Hopeful Stakes (gr.1) and Breeders’ Futurity to finish out his juvenile year. Prior to his two unplaced efforts the colt went undefeated when winning the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr.3) and Sanford Stakes (gr.2) at Churchill Downs and Saratoga respectively. I was very excited to see such a sharp return from Backtalk as I’ve been saying since the beginning of the year that I felt he was the real deal and would make a successful return to the races in his 3 year old debut.

Bickersons Looks To Enhance Her Image

[caption id="attachment_470" align="alignleft" width="298" caption="Bickersons winning the Forward Gal"][/caption]

The Davona Dale Stakes (gr.2) hosts a talented and seemingly deep field of three-year-old fillies, all making their early bids for the Kentucky Oaks. With the depth of runners entered, the result could be decided by experience rather than raw talent. Bickersons caught nearly every horseman’s eye last month when she won the Forward Gal Stakes (gr.1) at Gulfstream Park by a scintillating 7 lengths. In her wake she left champion 2-year-old filly and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies victor She Be Wild. The Forward Gal was Bickersons first start of 2010, previously she closed out her two-year-old year by winning the Moccasin Stakes at Hollywood Park in November, then finishing 5th in the Hollywood Starlet (gr.1).

Sassy’s Image won the two premier juvenile filly races at Churchill Downs last year when taking the Pocahantas Stakes (gr.3) and then the Golden Rod Stakes (gr.2) less than a month later in a tease. Trainer Dale Romans had the filly sharpened as tight as a loaded spring for her three-year-old debut at Gulfstream in the Sweetest Chant Stakes and the result was an easy 4 ½ victory in the slop. That makes 3 consecutive stakes Sassy’s Image has been able to string together.

Santa Ynez (gr.2) victor Amen Hallelujah will be making her first start on dirt in the Davona Dale. Trainer Rick Dutrow has had the filly working very well in preparation at Gulfstream. Last year as a juvenile Amen Hallelujah placed second in two grade 1 stakes before finally breaking through with her first stakes victory in the Santa Ynez. She has one the nicest names I’ve ever heard, but whether or not she can handle the dirt and the step up in class remain questionable. If her very consistent synthetic form translates smoothly to dirt, she could end up playing a major role.

Christine Daae rounds out the top four choices in the Davona Dale. Although this filly is lightly raced and just broke her maiden in her last start, the way in which she won has had people buzzing ever since. After stalking the pace throughout the race, the daughter of Giant’s Causeway swept clear in the stretch for an 8 ¾ length victory in a sparkling time of 1:21.67 for seven furlongs. Many people expect her to live up to her name and sing a glorious aria in the Davona Dale while at the same time proving it was no phantom anomaly she uncorked in her last start. Her training up to this race had been phenomenal and hints at a big performance in store.

I’m going to place the proverbial noose around my neck here and state that I do not think she will win here. I think she

[caption id="attachment_471" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Bickersons winning the Moccasin"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_472" align="alignleft" width="298" caption="Sassy Image winning the Sweetest Chant"][/caption]

is very talented and has limitless potential but I believe the combined talent and experience of Bickersons and Sassy’s Image will most likely result in a one-two finish of those two. Bickersons in particular looks like a powerhouse. In her Forward Gal win she was coasting so easy down the stretch that Jockey Joe Bravo had the reins loose on her neck. She literally did it all on her own without breaking a sweat.

The Sham Stakes at Santa Anita has been delayed due to drainage problems yet again.

Don’t forget to watch the veteran runner Precious Passion attempt to retain his victorious crown the in the Mac Diarmida Stakes (gr.2) at Gulfstream Park. He won this event last year and looks to return to his front-running winning ways today.

In other news Backtalk made a successful return to the track in his three-year-old debut Friday at Delta Downs. The son of Smarty Jones won his first two-turn race in the one-mile allowance race. After being bumped early in the race Backtalk stalked in third, swept five wide into the stretch and drove to the wire to win by half a length over front-running Royal Express. This win puts the colt squarely back on the Derby trail after two unplaced efforts in the

[caption id="attachment_474" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Backtalk"][/caption]

Hopeful Stakes (gr.1) and Breeders’ Futurity to finish out his juvenile year. Prior to his two unplaced efforts the colt went undefeated when winning the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr.3) and Sanford Stakes (gr.2) at Churchill Downs and Saratoga respectively. I was very excited to see such a sharp return from Backtalk as I’ve been saying since the beginning of the year that I felt he was the real deal and would make a successful return to the races in his 3 year old debut.

Friday, February 19, 2010

The Fountain Of Youth, Risen Star and More

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The Fountain of Youth Stakes could easily prove to be the most important and influential Kentucky Derby preps to date the way the race has taken shape. Buddy’s Saint has been vying for favoritism with Lookin At Lucky at the top of most all Derby lists and leads a fantastic field of 3 year old colts. Buddy’s Saint goes to the post as the favorite off his impressive open-length victories in the Nashua and Remsen stakes last year. He makes his highly anticipated 3 year old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and I believe he will emerge as the #1 leading Kentucky Derby candidate. Jackson Bend could provide his greatest challenge, after finishing a game second in the Holy Bull Stakes, Jackson Bend has been turning in a series of good works for trainer Nick Zito, the last work coming in a 4 furlong bullet. He is sharper than ever for the Fountain of Youth and the only question that seems to be unanswered here is his ability to get the 1 1/8 miles. Eskendereya from the barn of loaded trainer Todd Pletcher comes into the Fountain of Youth off an impressive front-running victory in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 7th.  I’m a sucker for chestnuts and Eskendereya sports a stunning chestnut coat and his talent is just as stunning. He won the Pilgrim Stakes last year

[caption id="attachment_460" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Jackson Bend"][/caption]

at Belmont Park by 8 lengths before turning in a 9th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on synthetics. Another runner from trainer Todd Pletcher’s barn is Aikenite. Last seen finishing sixth in the Holy Bull Stakes after sitting much closer to the pace than usual Aikenite looks to return off that poor showing with more kick this time. Pulsion is also making his 3 year old debut after finishing 11th in the Breeders’ Cup. Before that he finished behind Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk Stakes (gr.1). He was scratched from the Holy Bull after developing mucus in his lungs earlier in the year. Three of my favorite colts on the Derby trail are all entered here, Buddy’s Saint, Jackson Bend and Eskendereya. I think Buddy’s Saint is the superior athlete, but no one will be surprised to see any of the others mentioned win this.

[caption id="attachment_461" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Ron The Greek"][/caption]

The Risen Star Stakes heralds the return of surprise Lecompte victor Ron the Greek, but this time he starts as the race favorite.  His come from behind style will be the same strategy here and if he’s as good as he looked winning last out I think he’ll blow on by the field once again. Drosselmeyer won at 9 furlongs at Gulfstream in January after making several moves through the lane and splitting horses to win. He looks to improve off that effort in the Risen Star. The horse I will be watching the most closely aside from Ron the Greek will be Discreetly Mine. He was grade 2 placed last year and always seemed to display heart and determination in his runnings.

The Southwest Stakes should be Dublin’s party if you take the word of trainer D. Wayne Lukas seriously. Dublin was “the” horse at some point last year, and after two unplaced efforts in two of the premier juvenile dirt races almost everyone wrote him off as a flash-in-the-pan. I personally feel he is going to run away with the Southwest and move his way back onto the list of serious Derby contenders. Conveyance, the undefeated Bob Baffert trainee has won all three

[caption id="attachment_462" align="alignright" width="298" caption="Dublin"][/caption]

of his races to date but has never raced on traditional dirt. Bob Baffert colts should never be underestimated, he seems to know how to get a horse to the Derby better than almost anyone else. Mission Impazible and Domination are the two question marks in the Southwest, either one of them seems ready to burst through their juvenile shells at any time and become leading Derby candidates. Mission Impazible seems to be the better of the two and has the best chance to place I think.

The Hutcheson Stakes looks like a showdown between Saratoga Special and Futurity Stakes winner D’Funnybone and

[caption id="attachment_463" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="D'Funnybone"][/caption]

Spectacular Bid Stakes winner A Little Warm. Dual grade 2 winner D’Funnybone makes his 2010 debut in the Hutcheson for trainer Rick Dutrow. He last finished 13th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on the synthetic surface, a completely uncharacteristic showing for the colt and he should bounce back in a big way in the Hutcheson.  Radiohead returns from a 7th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in just his second start in the United States. He won 2 of his 6 starts in England as a Juvenile but has not been overly impressive with his preparation leading up to this race. A Little Warm won the Spectacular Bid Stakes last out in the mud and won an allowance race by more than 10 lengths before that. He is obviously very talented and his running style of rating just off the pace usually works very well in the Derby. D’Funnybone and A Little Warm could easily finish one-two here.

The El Camino Real Derby brings the 1-2-3 finishers from the California Derby back together. Connemara finished second to Ranger Heartley in the California Derby as the favorite and is trained by the red-hot Todd Pletcher. Ranger Heartley has won 3 of his last 4 starts and if he can win again could make his way onto some Derby watch lists. Thomas Baines finished 3rd to Ranger Heartley and Connemara last out and has won only 1 of his 10 lifetime starts.

2009 Champion Grass Male and Older Male Gio Ponti makes his 2010 debut in the Tampa Bay Breeders’ Cup on

[caption id="attachment_466" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Gio Ponti"][/caption]

Saturday. He returns for the first time after finishing second to Zenyatta in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic. The Tampa Bay Breeders’ Cup will serve as his prep for the Dubai World Cup and everyone is anticipating his return that could herald great things to come in 2010.

Don’t forget to check out my new page on racehorse biographies!  Enjoy watching the magnificent line-up of races this weekend. I am unfortunately not going to be able to watch the races live because I am going on my first ski trip this weekend, but I will be on the computer searching for minute-to-minute updates. Good luck to all![polldaddy poll=2728822]