The Gals are Moving Forward

Saturday’s Forward Gal Stakes features a diverse field of 6 fillies at Gulfstream Park, headlined by three-time graded stakes winner and brilliant sprinter Kauai Katie. The Malibu Moon filly will be making her second start of the month when she enters the gate in the Grade 2 event, having already impressively captured the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes at Gulfstream on January 1st by 8 lengths in an excellent time of 1:09.66 for the 6 furlongs. In 2012 Kauai Katie won her first three starts by more than 22 combined lengths before finishing a credible 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Gr.1). She enters the Forward Gal off two consecutive 4 furlong works and will once again be ridden by John Velasquez as the solid favorite.

My Happy Face is one of the most intriguing runners in the Forward Gal field. The Tiz Wonderful filly finished a well beaten 2nd to Teen Pauline in her debut on July 25th at Saratoga and then returned one month later on August 31st to post one of the most impressive maiden victories of 2012, bar none. In that 5 ½ furlong contest, My Happy Face bolted from the gate and immediately grabbed a 3 length lead, setting brisk fractions on the front end of :22.34 for the opening quarter and :45.15 for the half. Around the far turn she extended her lead to about 5 lengths before exploding down the stretch with any urging whatsoever, to win by 21 ¼ lengths for fun under the confident guidance of Ramon Dominguez. In her next start My Happy Face gave Dreaming of Julia the race of her life in the Grade 1 Frizette, racing neck and neck with Dreaming of Julia from the opening quarter mile all the way down to the wire, just missing the win by a head. In her next start My Happy Face once again showed her grit and determination in the Grade 3 Tempted Stakes, taking the lead at the break and running nose and nose all the way to the wire with Cue the Moon to nab the victory after posting blazing fractions of :22.48 and :44.87 for the opening quarter and half. This is a filly that has the talent to match her heart and natural speed and she’s my pick to win. Click here to read the complete post on Horse Racing Nation: Distaff Runner!

My Miss Aurelia: A 2013 Forecast

The older female division for 2012 was certainly not lacking in talent, excitement and glamour. As exciting as 2012 was in the distaff division, 2013 is setting up to be an even more spectacular display of the nation’s best fillies and mares. Royal Delta added a second stellar year to her record and became the first back-to-back winner of the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic (Gr.1) since superstar Baykoa won back-to-back runnings in 1989 and 1990 in early November of this year. A failed attempt to win the Dubai World Cup did little to diminish her status as an elite runner and she finished up the year with two consecutive Grade 1’s and will enter 2013 once again as the title holder for divisional honors. It doesn’t appear she has reached the limit of her potential and in fact, she looked better than ever winning the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic, so it wouldn’t be considered absurd to predict another championship season from such a talented, capable filly. But many challenges lie in her path in the coming year if she is once again to conquer the championship. The talent pool she faces in 2013 may be the toughest she has faced yet and the biggest threat could come from a champion who was handed her first ever career defeat by Royal Delta...Read the complete post on Horse Racing Nation Here

Closing in on the Kentucky Oaks

What’s not to like about the Kentucky Oaks? In 137 runnings, the Kentucky Oaks has produced some of the sports brightest stars and most thrilling memories and yet it still plays second fiddle to its world-famous counterpart, the Kentucky Derby. There are several upsides to rooting for the Kentucky Oaks and two especially big reasons to like it just as much as the Derby. First, the Kentucky Oaks is run at the same thrilling venue as the Derby but is restricted to a reasonable 14 horse field. This means it can be run as an actual race, with strategy and some amount of uniformity and not as mad-house 20 horse dash like the Derby. Ok, the Derby might not be that hectic, but there’s a whole lot more disarray once the field breaks from the gate than there is in the Oaks. Second, winners of the Kentucky Oaks, and participants in general, tend to have much longer careers on the track than winners and participants of the Kentucky Derby. Recent powerhouse fillies such as Rachel Alexandra and Blind Luck have provided some of the most exciting post-Oaks winning careers this decade. So I ask again; what’s not to like about the Kentucky Oaks? Absolutely nothing I say.

Read the complete story here on Horse Racing Nation: http://bit.ly/IOj35I

Pricness Arabella takes on the Sunland Park Oaks

Undefeated in two impressive starts, Princess Arabella faces a field of 6 other fillies for trainer Bob Baffert on Saturday in the Sunland Park Oaks. Check out the story here on Horse Racing Nation and sound off on who you think has the best winning shot: http://bit.ly/GKNRZt

The Novel Nine: Kentucky Oaks Hopefuls

I have finally constructed my first top nine selections of Kentucky Oaks contenders for the year so far. Check it out on Horse Racing Nation, I think the #1 slot will surprise you! http://bit.ly/AAFUbY

To 'Zip" or Not in the Las Virgenes

It's been a long time since I was able to write something but I have finally posted a new article on HRN breaking down the field for the Las Virgenes Stakes. Check it out here: http://bit.ly/yhnhls

2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: Best long-shots and Favorites

Juvenile races have always been the toughest ones for me to handicap. The Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr.1) has produced a full field of 14 promising fillies this year, sorting out the good from the bad is perhaps not as challenging as it appears when looking at the entries. I believe there are five fillies with a good chance to win, and three with a good chance to hit the board. I hate to say it, but I think this one is all about the favorites for the win. There has been a lot of consistency among the top five contestants this year, hence the reason for three undefeated, Grade 1 winners entered in the field.

My Miss Aurelia is the deserving morning line favorite for the race off the strength of her 5 ½ length romp over Stopshoppingmaria in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes early last month at Belmont Park, but it’s an undefeated daughter of Empire Maker that I like the most right now. Grace Hall won her debut at Delaware Park by three lengths in late July before winning the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes over the gifted Judy the Beauty. She followed that win up with a easy three length score in the Blue Hen Stakes at Delaware Park on October 1^st, winning in a hand ride after contesting the lead. So far all three wins by Grace Hall have been accomplished with just a hand ride, implying there is much more to this filly than we have seen so far.

My Miss Aurelia ran a huge race in the Frizette, capturing the race in front-running fashion by more than five lengths, and defeating Stopshoppingmaria handily for the second time in her three race career. She also defeated third place finisher Miss Netta in the Frizette, a filly I think has a lot of potential to movfe forward in the Juvenile Fillies today. My Miss Aurelia is a daughter of Smart Strike and is owned by Barbara Banke, wife to the late Jess Jackson of Curlin and Rachel Alexandra fame. I think the greatest weakness for this filly could be her front-running tactics, even though juvenile fillies have fared very well in recent years running on the front end, I think there are some very classy fillies behind her this time that will not let her run away in the stretch.

Weemissfrankie is the undisputed leader of West Coast juvenile fillies after back-to-back Grade 1 wins in the Del Mar Debutante Stakes and most recently in the Oak Leaf Stakes where she ran down the very talented Candrea, who is also slated to take part in the Breeders’ Cup. She could not have been more impressive in her Oak Leaf score where she ran down Candrea just before the wire, closing from fifth place and coming into the stretch four wide, while still catching the leader and winning by half a length under a vigorous hand ride. She ran a fantastic :59.20 five furlong work one week ago at Santa Anita to signal how fit and ready she is to run.

Miss Netta has raced just two times in her short career so far, but has shown incredible potential. She broke her maiden at first asking, taking a six furlong at Saratoga in late August but almost three lengths, running on the lead from gate, to wire. Her next start came in the Frizette Stakes (gr.1) at Belmont Park where she just happened to run into the monster we know as My Miss Aurelia, finishing a distant, but decisive third. On paper her performance looks back, but it was actually very good. She broke awkwardly, immediately dropping four lengths off the field and running very greenly for jockey Rajiv Maragh. By the time My Miss Aurelia was approaching the far turn, Miss Netta was far more than twelve lengths off the back of the pack, but began to eat up the ground and settle for Rajiv Maragh as they entered the far turn. Coming into the stretch My Miss Aurelia was pulling well clear of Stopshoppingmaria up front, but Miss Netta was flying home fastest of all, running an incredible race to get up for third, finishing almost three lengths ahead of Holiday Soiree in fourth. She could be sitting on a huge race at Churchill Downs today and her :46.87 bullet work at Belmont last weekend proves she is coming into this race very sharp.

Candrea ran a big race in the Oak Leaf Stakes (gr.1), a race that in most cases would have been a winning race if not for Weemissfrankie. She pressed the pace in second, took over from the pacesetter coming into the stretch and began to draw off and accelerate approaching the wire. Unfortunately for her, Weemissfrankie was just too good and flew by her on the outside late to snag the win by half a length. This Bob Baffert trained filly won the first two starts of her career by a combined 7 ½ lengths. She likes to sit close to the pace and launch her bid off the turn, tactics that will keep her close to the front-running My Miss Aurelia in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies if she has the speed. She had a good :48.80 half mile breeze at Churchill Downs recently and is another that looks like a candidate to run a good race.

Since I don’t have time to handicap the entire field, I tried to choose three long-shot fillies that I think have the best shots at hitting the board for a price. My first is two-time stakes winner, Say a Novena. This filly has won three of her six career starts so far and most recently captured the Brandywine Stakes at Parx Racing after missing by one length in the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth Park in early September. Her biggest problem is that she has never run past seven furlongs yet, but in all of her stakes tries, which make up her last four consecutive starts, she has finished running well and never tired late. She could be a nice value if she runs well today with morning line odds of 30-1.

Awesome Belle has taken the same course to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies that 2010 Juvenile winner Awesome Feather took, and they just happen to both be daughters of Awesome of Course. Awesome Belle enters the Juvenile off a 7 ½ length romp in the 1 1/16 mile My Dear Girl Stakes at Calder Race Course. The My Dear Girl Stakes is the final race in the Florida Stallion Series which Awesome Feather won last year. This year Awesome Belle didn’t fare as well, finishing fifth in the Desert Vixen Stakes after a bad trip in the stretch, and finished third in the Susan’s Girl Stakes after finding herself in tight quarters and unable to catch the top two. I think she’s beginning to improve and really good shot to hit the board. Her morning line odds are 20-1 and her most recent work was a :48.20 half mile move at Calder.

Rocket Twentyone is undefeated in two starts, but most recently captured the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes (gr.2) at Arlington Park on September 10^th. The one thing she will seriously need to improve on is her speed is she hopes to finish in the top half of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies field. She ran the one mile Arlington-Washing Lassie in a slow time of 1:39.13, and has been working up to the race equally as slow. As a daughter of Indian Charlie you know she has a chance to improve, but it’s highly doubtful she can win. Maybe hit the board, and with odds of 20-1 it might be worth a shot.

So there are my three long-shot choices, of the three I like Awesome Belle much the best. Of the top five fillies in the field I like Grace Hall, Miss Netta, Weemissfrankie, and My Miss Aurelia in that order. Good luck to all and enjoy the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Friday card.